More U.S. heat waves likely unavoidable due to climate change, study finds
- Heat already kills more Americans each year than any other weather hazard.
- Record-breaking heat events in recent summers will become much more frequent in places like North America and Europe.
- The study looks at the “heat index,” which measures the impact of heat on the human body.
A dramatic increase in deadly heat waves is now likely inevitable, according to a study released Thursday.
The authors say there is still hope that the global temperature rise due to human-induced climate change can be halted, averting even more catastrophic heat in parts of the planet.
But even if the global temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are met, the study’s authors warn that heat waves are destined to become more frequent in the coming decades.
“The frequency of extreme heat waves is likely to increase 3 to 10 times by the end of the century, depending on where you live in the United States,” said the study’s lead author, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello at USA TODAY.
The authors say their findings highlight the need to both reduce future greenhouse gas emissions and protect people, especially outdoor workers, from dangerous heat.
Heat already kills more Americans each year than any other weather hazard, including hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, according to the National Weather Service.
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Record heat to become more mainstream
The results suggest that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity could lead to increased exposure to extreme temperatures over the next few decades, even if global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, according to the Accord from Paris.
“Record-breaking heat events in recent summers will become much more frequent in places like North America and Europe,” said Vargas Zeppetello, who did the research as a doctoral student at the University of Washington and is now postdoctoral researcher at Harvard University. .
Very high temperatures are a threat to public health, with extreme heat contributing to heat cramps, heat exhaustion and chronic illnesses, according to the study.
“It’s especially dangerous for hot, humid places like the south and east coast, but we’ve also seen the impact of extreme heat on the west coast, so there’s really no place in the United States where this won’t be a problem,” Vargas Zeppetello said.
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People in equatorial regions will suffer even more
The forecasts are even more worrying in other parts of the world:
“For many places close to the equator, by 2100 more than half the year will be a challenge to work outdoors, even if we start to reduce emissions,” Vargas Zeppetello said.
In the worst-case scenario of emissions going unchecked until 2100, “extremely dangerous” conditions, in which humans should not be outdoors for some time, could become common in countries near the equator. – particularly in India and sub-Saharan Africa. Africa.”
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Dangerous heat index possible
The study looks at the “heat index,” which measures the impact of heat on the human body. A “dangerous” heat index is defined by the weather service as 103 degrees. An “extremely dangerous” heat rating is 124 degrees, considered unsafe for humans for some time.
According to study co-author David Battisti, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, the number of days with dangerous heat levels in the southeastern and central United States will more than double. by 2050.
“It’s extremely scary to think about what would happen if 30 to 40 days a year exceeded the extremely dangerous threshold,” Vargas Zeppetello said. “These are scary scenarios that we still have the ability to prevent. This study shows you the chasm, but it also shows you that we have some agency to prevent these scenarios from happening.”
The study was published in the British journal Communications Earth and Environment.
USA Today
