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More than 9.5 million Californians vote for recall, spurting Newsom

Of the 9.5 million Californians who have already returned the ballots in the recall election, more than half were registered Democrats, a positive sign for Gov. Gavin Newsom as he tries to stay in office.

Of the votes cast at 6 p.m. and analyzed by Political Data Inc., about 51 percent – over 4.8 million ballots – were cast by Democrats, 26 percent by Republicans, and the rest by those who didn’t. had no preference for another party.

Data from the Los Angeles-based company, which uses government and business data to analyze the electorate, includes postal ballot counts for all 58 counties and voter counts from polling stations of around 15 counties, including Los Angeles, Orange and Santa Clara.

There are a few major caveats: not all counties report polling station data, polling stations are open until 8 p.m., and mail ballots sent out today are not available for the release. most have not been reported.

But so far Republicans and Democrats have voted at similar rates, with voter turnout hovering just under half, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Polling Data Inc. supporters of the recall, who to win needed a strong Tory turnout, lackluster Democrat turnout, and a good chunk of Liberal voters who were willing to leave Newsom.

That change has yet to materialize, Mitchell said.

Analysts who saw a healthy Democratic turnout at the start of mail-in voting last month expected “Republicans to really close in at the end with a wave of in-person and mail-in votes,” Mitchell said. “What is remarkable is that nothing notable has happened.”