Modeling shows Australian coking coal exports to China could fall by more than 20% by 2025

Responds to an interesting article by researchers at the Australian National University that contrasts with the Australian government’s complacent forecasts:

  • Our model suggests that if China meets its current climate commitments, thermal coal imports will fall by a quarter within three years, from 210 megatonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 155 Mt by 2025. This means that Australian exports could drop 20% by 2025, while Australian coking coal exports could fall even further. This contrasts sharply with the Australian government’s forecast of stable demand or even continued growth.
  • How could this have happened so quickly, when coal prices have roughly tripled over the past decade? In short, better infrastructure. China has invested in major rail projects, including a direct rail line to a major coking coal mine in Mongolia, as well as increasing use of scrap metal.

Link here for more, will be of interest to AUD traders.


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