Model predicts GOP will regain House majority this fall, Senate a toss

The Republican Party is poised to regain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to Decision Desk’s Midterm Election Prediction Model. At the same time, the GOP’s chances in the US Senate are uncertain.

The Decision Desk model ran 14,000,605 simulations through July 20, finding that Republicans have a substantial 88% chance of becoming the majority party in the House. The average result has the GOP taking a 235-200 seat advantage over the Democrats, which would be a dramatic change from the current Democratic lead of 220-211 with four vacancies. However, the odds of Republicans taking control of the Senate is 45%, and the average outcome is a stalemate, with 50 Republicans, 48 ​​Democrats, and 2 independents caucusing with Democrats. Essentially, the numbers would remain the same as today, and the tiebreaker would remain with Vice President Kamala Harris. If either party wins a majority, it will probably be a seat or two.

The model defines three Senate races as “Toss-ups,” two contests that “Lean” Republicans and two that lean Democrats, while all other races are either “Like” or “Solid.”[ly]favoring one of the two parties. Pennsylvania’s race is closest to the board on July 20 as Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz takes on his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, to replace incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) .

Nevada is ranked as the second most competitive contest, where former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the Republican nominee, is seeking to unseat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Finally, the third draw on the board is in Georgia. Republican nominee and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker will train with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) for the seat in November. Senate races in Arizona and New Hampshire lean toward the Democrats, while contests in Ohio and North Carolina favor Republican nominees JD Vance and Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), all of whom have two were endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump in their primaries.

The model rated 15 US House races as draws as of July 20. Here are the ten most competitive races based on the model’s projections for each candidate’s odds. Congressional primaries have yet to take place in New York, New Hampshire and Michigan, so candidates are not listed below in those races.

  1. California’s Thirteenth District: John Duarte (R) 48% against Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-21) 52%

  2. Third District of Iowa: State Sen. Zach Nunn (R) 52.1% against Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) 47.9%

  3. Thirteenth District of Illinois: Regan Deering (R) 53.3% vs. Nikki Budzinski (R) 46.7%

  4. Third District of New York

  5. Seventh District of Pennsylvania: Lisa Scheller (R) 55.6% vs Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) 44.4%

  6. First District of New Hampshire

  7. Oregon’s Sixth District: Mike Erickson (R) 44 against State Representative Andrea Salinas (D-38) 56%

  8. Ohio’s Ninth District: JR Majewski (R) 56.4 v Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) 43.6%

  9. Michigan’s Eighth District

  10. Oregon’s Fourth District: Alex Skarlatos (R) 60.1% v Val Hoyle (R) 39.9%

With the November 8 election still over 100 days away, there is still plenty of time for these numbers to fluctuate one way or another.


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