Democrat Mandela Barnes, who is running for the Wisconsin Senate, is accused of being “a Democrat who ‘defunds the police,'” in a television ad backed by the Republican National Senate Committee, which added that “murder is in increase in Milwaukee of 40%, the fourth largest increase in the country.
Those ads are in heavy rotation in suburban areas as part of a GOP strategy to hijack the conversation from abortion politics, which has put Republicans on the defense since the Supreme Court overturned. Roe vs. Wade. Instead, Republicans are addressing fears evident in the polls: About three-quarters of those polled said violent crime was rising nationally, while 88% said violent crime was either rising or staying the same. the same in their own communities.
In the poll, 60% said crime would play a major role in deciding who they would vote for, surpassed only by economic concerns and access to abortion.
Notably, 60% of respondents also said gun policy would play a major role in their vote. More than half blamed the spike in crime on ‘too many guns on our streets’, 5 points higher than the share of voters who said ‘defunding police departments’ was a reason major. Passing gun control reform legislation is a top priority for 62% of respondents. Another third said it should not be done or should not be a priority.
Voters identified two top policy prescriptions for solving crime: more funding for policing and tougher gun control laws, both of which attracted 37% of respondents who thought these changes would significantly reduce criminality.
Some Democrats — led by strategists from Everytown for Gun Safety, the gun safety group founded and funded by Michael Bloomberg — think it’s a way through attacks on crime for Democratic campaigns. By tying crime to gun control measures, Democrats can go on the offensive and “reset” the narrative that Democrats are weak on crime, said Everytown senior policy adviser Charlie Kelly.
This advice manifests itself in the Democrats’ response announcements. In Wisconsin, Barnes posted an ad featuring members of law enforcement, calling him “the real deal” who “doesn’t want to defund the police” and “I trust him to provide the resources I need.” we need to keep people safe and to reduce crime in the first place.
With a month to go until the midterm elections, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll also shows Democrats continue to hold a slight advantage on the generic ballot, with 46% of respondents saying they would prefer a Democratic candidate in the November 43 election. % who said they’d support a Republican candidate. Another 12 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion on the matter.
The result is a positive – and unusual – sign for the ruling party, which traditionally suffers heavy losses in the first midterm cycle of a new presidential administration. But Republicans only need five House seats to win back the chamber, giving Democrats little room for error.
A continuing drag on their chances is President Joe Biden’s low approval rating, which continues to soar into the 1940s. In the poll, 42% approve of his job performance, compared to 56% who disapprove.
This translates into a light public campaign schedule for the president, who has spent more time raising funds for his party behind closed doors instead of embarking on the campaign trail with high-rotation candidates.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, polling more than 2,000 registered voters across the country. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company, providing insight into what people are thinking in real time by surveying tens of thousands of people around the world every day.
More details on the survey and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines | Crosstabs