This week the PGA Tour turns to Augusta National – in my opinion everyone’s crown jewel – for the 2021 Masters. The course has curved grass greens and measures around 7,475 yards for a par 72. There are a ton of iconic holes, but nothing beats the Amen Corner stretch of 11, 12, and 13. Defending champion Dustin Johnson comes in as a betting favorite with odds of +950, which is understandable, as he set a tournament record in 2019.
The course is expected to feature 88 golfers playing for the iconic green jacket. As for the weather, there is supposed to be perfect conditions with no rain (fingers crossed). The track itself should play fast and firmly. This year’s event will be a little different from last year’s event, as fans will be allowed to return to limited capacity.
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According to Rick Gehman, the two most correlated stats that lead to success at this event are “Driving Distance” and “Strokes Won: Total”.
Betting on golf always seems to come down to the thread, which is why I got hooked. I have a feeling this will be a classic so I can’t wait. Let’s find out and see if we can make some money this week.
As for my betting picks below, you won’t find anything too revolutionary, but other than digging into the data in the RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for guys with solid values who’ve had success in the private lesson. and / or players who are moving in the right direction upon entering the event.
Masters choice, 2021 predictions
* Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bets to win outright
I absolutely love Dustin Johnson and Jordan spieth, but the story says that winning this tournament back-to-back (DJ) and winning two straight weeks (Spieth) is just hard to do. So I’m leaving with a few other guys this week.
Patrick Cantlay +2050
I see value on Cantlay at this number. He is solid in all facets of his game and has been one of the best players in the game for the past six months. His “Strokes Won: Tee-to-Green” numbers are better than anyone else’s, and his long iron game is second to none. He’s also enjoyed success on this course, finishing tied for ninth and 17th on his last two trips.
Cantlay is also in the top five of the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor. The guys who appear at the top of his model sims always tend to be in the mix on Sunday night. This is not the end, but it is another tool to use when trying to shrink the map. At this price, it’s one of my favorite weekend bets.
Patrick Reed +3500
Getting 35-1 odds for a former champion is juicy. He also won the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year. Reed is one of those guys who stands up for these kinds of events, and I’m sure he’s going to show up with a chip on his shoulder knowing that few people pick him up to win. The one big metric that’s missing from his game right now is “driving distance,” but hopefully he will be able to make up for it with his putting and iron game.
Best sleeper / long-shot choices
I’m looking for guys who are over 35-1 for this section. These guys are stallions in their own right so it’s kinda crazy to call them from afar, but for this section they serve their purpose. If any of them are in the mix next Sunday, I might try to bet live and cover up a bit to make sure I get some pizza money.
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Fitzpatrick has been one of the Tour’s most consistent players this season with four top 11 finishes. He drives the ball better and better and farther, and he also ranks fourth among the pack in “Won Strokes: Total”. Those are two of the big metrics that usually call for success in this tournament, so at 40-1 I can’t resist. He’s also finished in the top 10 here in the past which is the icing on the cake for me.
Will Zalatoris +7500
Zalatoris, the young phenomenon, is one of the leaders of “Strokes Gained: Total” and has played solid golf throughout the season. It is also in the top 20 for “driving distance”, which is important here. The problem is the experience. As Collin morikawa last year, no matter your level of play, this course takes some learning to beat. But under these conditions, it’s worth a little pinch.
Speaking of Morikawa, I bet him a while ago at +3000 thinking I would get a better number. Unfortunately for me, its odds are currently around the same price. I still think it’s a good time to buy high on him because I love the kid and his iron game. His comments this week seem to indicate that he has learned a lot from his experience last year, which will be a big boost for him this week.
I also had a little nibble of Brooks koepka to +3000. Everything indicates he’s going to play, but he’s always coming back from knee surgery, so who knows? There’s just something about him and some big events, though. He has this special ability to rise to the occasion, so I’m going to take the bait. I’m already splurging this week, so what’s a few more bucks? It’s Masters week, so let’s make the most of it.
Here. Hope you can enjoy this prestigious event and earn money at the same time.