Mark Kelly’s Blake Masters Within Two; The lead of the lake grows

Republican Blake Masters is neck and neck with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in the U.S. Senate race from Arizona, while Republican Kari Lake has increased her lead in the gubernatorial race, according to a survey.

The Trafalgar Group poll, released on Sunday, shows Masters just 1.2 percentage points behind Kelly. Among voters likely to have responded, 45.4% say they support Masters, who is backed by former President Donald J. Trump, compared to 46.6% who support Kelly. 5.3% are undecided and only 2.7% plan to vote for Libertarian candidate Marc Victor.

The numbers are consistent with a recent Emerson College Polling, which found Masters just two points behind the Democrat. Masters closed the gap in that poll to a late August Trafalgar group, which had him more than three points behind Kelly at 44.3% and 47.6%, respectively.

Lake’s lead over her Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, has increased by several points. Exactly half of respondents (50%) say they plan to vote for Lake compared to 45.6% who support Hobbs, giving the Republican a 4.4 point lead, while 4.4% of likely voters are undecided and to win. Last month’s poll from the Trafalgar Group showed Hobbs to be one point behind Trump-endorsed former Fox 10 Phoenix presenter.

The Trafalgar Group measured the temperature of the Arizona Secretary of State and Attorney General races, revealing the Republicans held the lead in both contests. The GOP nominee for Secretary of State, State Representative Mark Finchem, holds a more than six-point lead over his Democratic opponent, former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes. Among voters likely to respond, 47.5% support Finchem and 41.1% Fontes.

Republican Abe Hamadeh enjoys a nearly double-digit lead in the attorney general contest. Half of those polled (50%) say they support Hamadeh and 41% support Democrat Kris Mayes.

The Trafalgar Group sampled 1,080 likely voters from September 14-17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.


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