Mail-in votes could topple right-wing lead in Swedish elections

As Sweden’s populists celebrate their biggest election victory based on early results, mail-in ballots could change the tight race between right and left blocs and the actual results may not be known until the end of this week.

Following Sunday’s national elections in Sweden, the right-wing populist bloc of Swedish Democrats (SD), Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals edged the left-wing Socialist-led coalition by a single seat 175 to 174 But the real results are unlikely to be known until Wednesday, when the away and mail-in votes are tallied, according to Sweden’s election authority.

Svante Linusson, a math professor and former Electoral Review Commission expert, said results from foreign and mail-in ballots could alter results by up to 3%, but told the newspaper Aftonbladet that the right bloc still had an advantage.

Just 47,000 votes separate the two political blocs and, according to Linusson, the Socialists and the SD are the least likely to make gains when the voting results arrive on Wednesday, but added that it is not clear which parties from each block will benefit the most.

By far the biggest election achievement so far has been for the populist anti-mass migration Swedish Democrats, who came second overall, ahead of their right-wing allies with more than 20% of the vote. but behind the socialists. SD leader Jimmie Åkesson celebrated the historic result on Sunday evening, telling his supporters: “Right now we are the second biggest party in Sweden. He seems ready to stay there.

“I’ve already thanked everyone, but I have to do it again. We really are a big party today. I am so happy and proud of what we have done together to achieve this,” he said and noted that the party had grown from a “calculated little party that others laughed at” to a party that can challenge all the major parties in the country.

“If there is a change of power, we will have a central position. Our ambition is to sit with the government,” Akesson said and added, “What we consider best for Sweden is a new majority government with the Swedish Democrats as the basis, for a new government in Sweden.

Sweden’s Democrats, which pursued an anti-mass migration policy during the campaign, were not the only party to find success. On the other side of the spectrum, the Islamic Nyans party has probably enjoyed major success in many heavily migrant-populated parts of the country, as nearly 30% of voters in the no-go zone from Malmö to Rosengård are believed to have voted for the Nyans.

“My spontaneous impression is that it is about profiling itself as a party for Muslims and then you have figured out how to campaign in these groups, although I want to be a little cautious until we see the results final,” said political scientist Anders Sannerstedt. .

“We don’t know how the Nyans conducted their election campaign or what routes they took to reach voters. Opinion polls didn’t really capture that,” he said and added that the party may have taken votes from the Socialists in some areas. According Aftonbladetthe party could win up to two local mandates in the city of Malmö, a major breakthrough.

Follow Chris Tomlinson on Twitter at @TomlinsonCJ or by e-mail at ctomlinson(at)


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