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Liz Cheney cut a national profile, crossing paths with former President Donald Trump over his conduct on Jan. 6.
The Wyoming Republican is one of two Republicans on the House Jan. 6 committee, of which she serves as vice-chair — and her voice has been one of the clearest in blaming Trump for the insurgency.
But on Tuesday, Cheney faces voters in Wyoming who will determine her fate and whether they want to send her back to Congress.
And she seems to be in big trouble.
Cheney’s broadsides against Trump put his job in grave jeopardy, having drawn his ire and prompted him to endorse lead challenger Harriet Hageman.
Polls show Cheney down 20 points or more as his approval among state Republicans plunges.
In an effort to accommodate this, Cheney tried to appeal to Democrats, encouraging them to cross over and vote for her, even invoking the late Democratic President John F. Kennedy in a fundraising email.
It seems like a good idea at first glance, but it’s probably a bad omen. There simply aren’t enough Democrats in Wyoming, the state that voted by a wider margin for Trump in the 2020 presidential election than any other state in the nation.
It has been strange to see Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, hailed as something of a folk hero among Democrats. The numbers back it up: In the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Cheney had a 60% favor rating with the Democrats.
But among Republicans, his preference has dropped to just 13%.
Looking at other surveys, it’s a similar story. A Quinnipiac poll, for example, showed his approval with Republicans at 17%.
In Wyoming, an investigation revealed that Cheney’s disapproval in Wyoming at 72%.
This is bad news for a candidate trying to win a competitive primary.
Let’s look at the numbers. Basically, even if every Democrat, Constitution Party member, Libertarian, and every other otherwise unaffiliated registered voter in the state broke for Cheney, he would still be more than 200,000 votes short in a state of just under 300,000 registered voters.
To put an even finer point, if Cheney wins all Wyoming voters who are not Republicans, she would still lose nearly 50 points (73%-27%) if she won no Republican votes.
Cheney will obviously win votes from some Republicans, but it’s a pretty steep hill to start with.
Everything points to a possibly tough night for Cheney, and if she loses, only two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over his Jan. 6 conduct will have won their primaries.
One of them, Californian David Valadao, is one of the most threatened Republicans in the country because he is in a district that President Biden won in 2020 by double digits.
This means that when the next Congress begins, it’s possible Trump’s only Republican impeacher, Dan Newhouse of Washington, will likely still be in office.