Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is a striking distance behind Democrat Kathy Hochul in the gubernatorial race, trailing the New York City chief executive by 6 points, according to a new poll.
The survey of 1,194 likely voters – conducted by polling firm co/efficient – showed that 49% supported Hochul, 43% supported Zeldin and 8% were undecided.
The right-wing pollster predicted the upset victory of GOP underdog Glenn Youngkin over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the race for governor of Virginia last year.
“It’s a competitive race, more so than most people realize. It’s an uphill battle for Zeldin, but a winnable race,” said Ryan Muncie, president of polling firm co/efficient.
“Voter intensity is definitely right-wing, but whether that’s enough to overcome the Democratic registration advantage remains to be seen,” he added.
There are glimmers of hope for Zeldin, the underdog in a state where Democratic candidates enjoy a huge party registration advantage in statewide races.
Zeldin split the Hispanic vote with Hochul – generally a reliable Democratic constituency in New York – 41% to 41% with 18% of respondents undecided amid worries about crime and inflation.
He also leads among independents – voters not affiliated with a political party – 52% to 38% for Hochul.
Hochul leads Zeldin in Democratic-dominated New York, 61% to 28% with 11% undecided.
Zeldin leads Hochul in his upstate territory in the West NY/Buffalo region 54% to 38% and is up 21 points in the Central NY/Syracuse region.
They divide the votes in the suburbs of the battlefield.
Zeldin and Hochul are tied in Long Island legislature territory — 48% to 47%. They are also tied in suburban Hudson Valley counties north of New City, 48% to 48%.
Zeldin said on Sunday that he was gaining momentum.
“With each new Hochul scandal, pro-criminal laws like cashless bail, prosecutors like Alvin Bragg refusing to enforce the law, and punishing taxes and the ever-increasing cost of living, New Yorkers reach their breaking point and become more and more motivated to fire Kathy Hochul and save our state,” Zeldin said.
He called Hochul “weak” and “out of touch” and said he was the candidate “to save New York.”
The Hochul campaign had no immediate comment.
Muncie said the swing of independent and Hispanic voters in New York to the GOP is consistent with a national trend, saying independents are upset with Biden’s efforts to write off college loan debt.
He also called Zeldin’s 28% support in the Big Apple a decent result, given that the GOP believes a statewide candidate must get at least 30% of the city’s vote while still carrying a solid majority of voters in the rest of the state to stand a chance. to the post of governor.
Muncy said Zeldin will have to do better at his base on Long Island and other suburbs to unseat Hochul, the former lieutenant governor who replaced the disgraced former governor. Andrew Cuomo after his resignation.
Polls showed a gender disparity: Hochul, the first female governor, led Zeldin in women, 55% to 36% while Zeldin led Hochul in men, 52% to 42%.
Zeldin was 8 points ahead of white voters, 51% to 43%. Hochul had a huge advantage among black voters, 86% to 13%.
The congressman received support from 93% of other GOP voters while Hochul was backed by 83% of Democrats.
The co/effective survey claims a much tighter race than most other public college polls showing Hochul with a double-digit lead, though an April poll also predicted a close race.
An Emerson College poll released last week showed a 15-point gap, with Hochul ahead of Zeldin by 50% to 35%; a recent poll by independent group Trafalgar showed Hochul just 4 points ahead of Hochul.
The survey of 1,194 likely voters was conducted September 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Voters were surveyed via text messages from cell phones and landlines.
New York Post