Seen from Europe, the triumph to which Joe Biden was entitled during his first speech to Congress, this April 28, could lead one to believe that the 46th President of the United States is maneuvering with relative ease. The grace period that usually constitutes the first 100 days of a president in the White House ends, it is true, by a succession of promises kept and the engagement of some ambitious projects, both in the file of the health crisis as well as in that of the economy or even of American national cohesion.
The Republican opposition decrees the end of the truce
Only here, in the corridors of the Capitol, the republican opposition has already declared the end of the truce. In the hemicycle where, covid requires, barely 200 parliamentarians listened to the president, Ted Cruz, senator from Texas, even offered the luxury of a nap noticed. A way for one of Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters to display both his serenity and his contempt for a reform plan that he readily qualifies as “socialist and dictated by the ultra left”. But even more worrying for the Democratic Party, the young progressive guard led by Bernie Sanders during the campaign also intends to make its voice heard in Joe Biden’s America.
It is true that so far, the pillars of the program of the new Democratic administration have been converted into actions with great blows of presidential decrees. But the rising figures of American progressivism were not really associated with it. However, Joe Biden knows it, to stay on the road to success, the president will have to be less liberal, much more social and especially more attentive to personalities like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. The young elected official from New York, who has sat in the Lower House since November 2018, no longer conceals her intentions to reform the Democratic Party from the inside.
The new administration is very generous with American money
A debt that will swell
Admittedly, the image of the aging president and not very charismatic portrayed by the Republican camp during the campaign no longer sticks with reality, but the intention of the progressives to weigh more heavily remains intact. Joe Biden’s empathetic speeches got him high popularity until day 100, but it will take a lot longer to convince citizens to get their hands on the wallet. However, the repeated emergency aid plans that guaranteed American workers their unemployment benefits during the pandemic have literally emptied the coffers of the federal state. Soon to be added to this, the 2 900 billion dollars promised for the renovation of infrastructures and the 1 800 billion of the “family plan”, which will come to inflate a debt however held in large part by the economic enemy n ° 1: the China.
Richest Americans and Profitable Companies will compensate for these expenses, according to Joe Biden, thanks to an increase in taxes and social security contributions. Announcements that do not fail to feed the Republican argument that “the new administration is very generous with American money”.
Mid-term elections in winter 2022
However, from the winter of 2022, the Biden administration will have to face the first real sanction of American opinion: the mid-term elections. It will no longer be just a question of political communication and discourse of solidarity, but indeed of figures, starting with those of unemployment and growth.
Finally, even if the excellent results recorded by the Trump administration in the field of employment are only a distant memory, American voters have not forgotten that they were the direct consequence of a reduction in employment. ‘Corporation tax. That is, strictly the reverse of the strategy announced by the Biden team.
If we add to this the old Democratic dream of giving America universal social coverage and public universities that could, it is true, reduce social inequalities, the bill presented by the new administration becomes concretely unrealistic.
At the end of the 100-day count, traditionally the battle to regain majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate begins. However, in the event of a Democratic defeat in the Upper House in 2022, Joe Biden would find himself in the same position as his predecessor Barack Obama, that is to say stopped dead in his plans to reform American society.
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