Investment outlook: how much downside is left?


Investment outlook: how much downside is left?

Click on here to read Astoria’s fourth quarter investment outlook

  • The following quote refers to an old Wall Street adage: “The stock market stops panicking when central banks start panicking.” The Fed seems to be panicking in recent months, and we think it made a mistake at its September meeting. Most of the forward-looking inflation indicators Astoria monitors are down, and some quite rapidly. Aggressive hiking as the economy slows is rare. Generally, monetary policy becomes tighter when the economy is expanding.
  • Astoria believes we may be close to the end of this tightening cycle. Will inflation remain structurally higher and longer? Sure, but we think we’re 75% through this market downturn. When the Fed panics, it usually means we are close to the end of the market downturn.
  • Remember that as markets correct, valuations improve and expected forward returns become more attractive. It makes sense to be more optimistic when the market is falling, but many market experts preach the opposite.
  • In conclusion, Astoria prefers dividend payers, value over growth, quality defensive stocks, and we are finally warming up to bonds after years of avoiding the asset class. We are starting to buy laddered US Treasuries, IG credit and munis, all short-term paper. As always, we continue to advocate the inclusion of alternatives and factor diversification.

Better,
Astoria Portfolio Advisors


Astoria Portfolio Advisor Disclosure: At the time of writing this research report, Astoria held positions within AAPL on behalf of its clients. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any third party websites provided on www.astoriaadvisors.com are strictly for informational and convenience purposes. These third-party websites are publicly available and are not owned by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer or control the content. We cannot be held responsible for the accuracy, time-sensitive nature or viability of any information posted on these sites. The content of these links is not intended to be considered a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC and does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation for any security or investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave the Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.

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