IInvestors in Affirm Holdings Inc (Ticker: AFRM) saw new options become available this week, for the June 24 expiry. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula scoured the AFRM options channel for new contracts on June 24 and identified one put contract and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the strike price of $24.00 has a current bid of $4.55. If an investor were to sell to open this put contract, they agree to buy the stock at $24.00, but will also collect the premium, placing the cost base of the stock at $19.45 (before brokerage commissions ). For an investor already interested in buying shares of AFRM, this could represent an attractive alternative to paying $24.23/share today.
Since the strike price of $24.00 represents a discount of approximately 1% from the current stock price (in other words, it is out of play by that percentage), it is also possible that the contract of sale expires worthless. Current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current chance of this happening is 59%. Stock Options Channel will track these odds over time to see how they change, by posting a table of these numbers on our website under the contract detail page for that contract. If the contract expires worthless, the premium would represent an 18.96% return on the cash commitment, or 141.22% annualized – at Stock Options Channel, we call this the Yield increase.
Below is a chart showing Affirm Holdings Inc’s last twelve months trading history, and highlighting in green where the $24.00 strike falls in relation to that history:
On the call side of the options chain, the call contract at the strike price of $25.00 has a current bid of $4.30. If an investor were to buy AFRM shares at the current price level of $24.23/share and then sell to open this call contract as a “covered call”, they are committing to selling the stock at 25 $.00. Assuming the call seller will also collect the premium, this would result in a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 20.92% if the stock is called at the June 24 expiry (before broker commissions) . Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AFRM shares really do soar, which is why it becomes important to look at Affirm Holdings Inc’s past 12-month trading history, as well as study the fundamentals of business. Below is a chart showing the AFRM’s past twelve month trading history, with the $25.00 strike highlighted in red:
Given that the strike price of $25.00 represents a premium of approximately 3% to the current stock price (in other words, it is out of the price by that percentage), it It is also possible for the covered call contract to expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both his shares and the premium collected. Current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current chance of this happening is 45%. On our website, under the contract detail page for that contract, the Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a table of those numbers (the option contract’s trading history will be also plotted). If the covered call contract expires worthless, the premium would represent a 17.75% increase in incremental return to the investor, or 132.19% annualized, what we call the Yield increase.
The implied volatility in the example sell contract is 147%, while the implied volatility in the example buy contract is 157%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual volatility for the last twelve months (considering the closing values for the last 253 trading days as well as today’s price of $24.23) as 109%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth considering, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.