Inflation: break in 2022, after two decades of relative calm

In 2022, inflation should break with the moderate evolution of the last twenty years. Maintained by endogenous and exogenous factors, it would be around 4.7% according to the Central Bank. Is a highest since 2000, a peak of 3.9% having been recorded in 2008, recalls the HCP in a note published yesterday.

This year, inflation should remain at levels above the average of the last decade. This is what the High Commission for Planning (HCP) asserts in a note on “The evolution of inflation in Morocco” published yesterday. “The rise in the prices of imported raw materials and the crisis in the Black Sea region combined with a vertiginous rise in the price of a barrel to around 140 dollars would be likely to maintain the inflation rate during the year 2022 at relatively high levels,” explains the HCP. Morocco will obviously not be the exception, with inflation expected to be higher and more widespread than expected worldwide, due in particular to the increase in oil and food prices. In February, the latter have already soared by more than 20% compared to the same month of the previous year. Similarly, the price of cereals increased by 14.8% in February 2022, year on year, and oils reached a new high last month, at 36.7% year-on-year as well.

3.9%, the peak of the last 20 years
As a reminder, Bank Al-Maghrib expects inflation of 4.7% this year. Already at the end of February, the consumer price index increased by 3.3% in the first two months of 2021. A surge mainly attributed to food products (4.9%), the price of non-food products having taken 2 .4%.
The inflation expected this year in Morocco should thus break with the trend observed over the period 2000-2021, notes the HCP. The consumer price index had thus evolved below the 2% bar except for the years 2002, 2006 and 2008 with respectively 2.8%, 3.3% and 3.9%.
In fact, the general rise in prices was already brewing in 2021. Core inflation, which excludes products with volatile prices and regulated products, accelerated from April. The average underlying consumer price index (ISJ) evolved by an average of 2% over the period April-December 2021, compared to 0.2% during the same period in 2020. In February 2022, it increased by 3.5%.

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