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India’s economic recovery is on ‘solid track’ amid rapid progress in immunization, likely to grow 6.5% in FY 2022: a

India is expected to experience growth of 6.5% in FY2022, down from the GDP estimate of 8.4% in the previous fiscal year, and as the country’s economic recovery is on a “solid track” amid rapid progress in immunization, coal shortages and high oil prices could dampen economic activity in the short term, the UN said on Thursday.

The United Nations flagship report on the state and outlook for the world economy (WESP) 2022, launched here, said India’s GDP is expected to grow 6.5% in fiscal year 2022, a contraction from the estimated growth of 8.4% in FY2021. Growth is expected to slow further to 5.9% in FY2023, according to the report.

On a calendar year basis, the report states that India’s GDP is expected to grow 6.7% in 2022 after expanding 9% in calendar year 2021, as the base effects s ‘fade. The country’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.1% in calendar year 2023, according to the report. India’s economic recovery is on a solid course, amid rapid progress in immunization, less stringent social restrictions and still favorable fiscal and monetary positions, according to the report.

The report notes that in India, robust export growth and public investment are supporting economic activity, but high oil prices and coal shortages could dampen economic activity in the near term. Encouraging private investment will remain crucial to support inclusive growth beyond the recovery, he added. He added that although still vulnerable, India is in a better position to cope with financial turmoil compared to its situation during the tantrum tapping episode after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. This is due to a stronger external position and measures to minimize risks to bank balance sheets. In the medium term, the scarring effects of higher public and private debt or permanent impacts on labor markets could reduce potential growth and the prospects for poverty reduction.

In India, inflation is expected to decelerate through 2022, continuing a trend seen since the second half of 2021, when relatively low food prices offset rising oil prices. However, a sudden and renewed increase in food inflation, due to unpredictable weather conditions, larger supply disruptions and higher agricultural prices, could compromise food security, reduce real incomes and increase hunger. In the region. The report says the global economic recovery is facing significant headwinds amid new waves of COVID-19 infections, persistent labor market challenges, persistent supply chain issues and inflationary pressures increasing. After increasing by 5.5% in 2021, world production is expected to grow only 4.0% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023. In this fragile and uneven period of global recovery, the global economic situation and outlook 2022 calls for better political and financial targeting and coordination at national and international levels, said UN Secretary General Antnio Guterres.

Now is the time to close the inequality gaps within and between countries. If we work together as one human family, we can make 2022 a true year of recovery for people and economies, he said. With the highly transmissible Omicron variant of COVID-19 triggering new waves of infections, the human and economic toll of the pandemic is expected to rise again. Without a coordinated and sustained global approach to contain COVID-19 that includes universal access to vaccines, the pandemic will continue to pose the greatest risk for an inclusive and sustainable recovery of the global economy, said the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs said Liu Zhenmin. In India, a deadly wave of Delta variant infection claimed 240,000 lives between April and June 2021 and disrupted economic recovery. Similar episodes could take place in the short term, according to the report.

He also noted the important step taken by India to commit to 50% of its energy mix coming from renewable sources by 2030 and reaching net zero emissions by 2070.


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