ICYMI – OPEC+ agreed to increase production, but they can’t

Brief cover notes from some OPEC analysts


  • The market fears Europe will struggle to replace the 3.2mb/d it imports from Russia as it plans to impose a ban within the next six months.
  • OPEC seems unable to cover the losses. At its overnight monthly meeting, it endorsed a small monthly increase in production (400kb/d). In fact, it is believed to be struggling to increase production, with data from Bloomberg showing that production only increased by 10 kb/d in April.
  • Kuwaiti Oil Minister Mohammed Alfares said the group remained concerned about weak demand in China and the outlook for weaker economic growth due to higher interest rates. He also sees no shortage resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war and has raised his forecast from a 600kb/d surplus to 1.9mb/d.


  • OPEC+ meeting yesterday. The group has agreed to stick to its current production plan, which would see it increase production by 432 Mbbls/d in June. That means OPEC+ is cleared to produce 42.56MMbbls/d in June, which is unlikely to be achieved given the group produced just over 38MMbbls/d in March, figures show. of the IEA. The group is struggling to meet its production quotas due to disruptions and a lack of investment in the fields. The lagging production is unlikely to change anytime soon, especially given the drop in demand for Russian oil, which will eventually lead to lower production.

Also, I posted earlier on:

  • The US administration has announced its intention to start filling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

WTI update:


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