CNN
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An area of storms in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Helene and rapidly intensify over the unusually warm Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as a major hurricane.
The storm has not yet formed but is expected to form soon, which is why the National Hurricane Center has dubbed it “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” to warn of its imminent threat.
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. A hurricane and tropical storm warning was issued Monday afternoon for the Dry Tortugas Islands and parts of the Florida Keys. Additional warnings will be issued for the United States in the coming days, with a possible landfall in Florida expected as early as Thursday evening.
Florida wasted no time in getting its preparations in place. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm for 41 of the state’s 67 counties, according to a news release Monday. The move helps speed up preparations and coordination between state and local governments.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms moving across the extreme western Caribbean Sea. This stormy weather will bring potentially flooding rainfall to parts of Central America, Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica as it attempts to organize into a tropical system.
Although its exact track and strength could change, Helene will track north over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which will likely supercharge it on its collision course with the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center predicts Helene will rapidly intensify and eventually become a Category 3 hurricane over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico — a feat that is increasingly likely as the planet warms due to fossil fuel pollution.
Strong and potentially damaging winds and storm surge are likely near the system’s final landfall. The system will also stir up seas in the Gulf and could produce high waves and dangerous rip currents across much of the basin, particularly later this week.
The National Hurricane Center says the typhoon made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, but anyone on the Gulf Coast from Florida to eastern Louisiana should be on alert this week.
Confidence in the system’s exact trajectory will increase after it forms, as forecast models struggle to accurately determine where it might go without a center to lock onto.
Ensemble forecast models (groupings of multiple models run with slight differences to show a wide range of results) are focusing on the eastern Gulf Coast as the most likely area for landfall later this week. When ensemble tracks are closer together, it means there is more confidence in the track.
There is a closer cluster of this storm along the eastern Gulf Coast, but since it has not yet formed, that is not a guarantee.
Tampa General Hospital began erecting a 10-foot-high flood barrier around the facility Monday due to the risk of storm surge and changes in the storm’s path with little time to prepare. The Level 1 trauma center’s location next to Hillsborough Bay makes it extremely exposed to storm surge.
It takes a crew of 60 people three days to fully erect the fence that encircles the hospital, and work will continue “unless the weather forecast is favorable enough to stop,” said Dustin Pasteur, the hospital’s vice president of facilities and construction. “I just couldn’t afford to waste a day waiting.”
Regardless of the exact path, heavy rain is possible across much of the Southeast starting midweek. A Level 2 out of 4 risk of torrential rain is in place for much of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and parts of the Carolinas on Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
The danger from the system won’t end once it makes landfall. Helene could bring strong winds and torrential rain to much of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday. That could lead to dangerous flooding and major power outages.
Another storm impacting the United States and Florida
Helene is forecast to be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. The other three quickly intensified before hitting the United States as hurricanes: Beryl, Debby and Francine.
The last time four or more hurricanes hit the United States in a single season was during the devastating 2020 season.
Despite the string of strong storms, if Helene does make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, it would be the first major hurricane to do so in the United States since Idalia slammed into Florida’s Big Bend last August.
Helene would continue a string of hurricane hits for the Sunshine State. Helene is expected to be the fifth hurricane to hit Florida since 2022. The repeated hits have pushed the state’s insurance market to the brink, with insurers pulling out of the state due to the growing risk of extreme weather due to climate change.
CNN’s Isabel Rosales contributed to this report.
