How we arrived at 1 million Covid deaths – in four graphs.

It’s as if the entire population of Delaware, Montana, or Rhode Island, or all of Austin, disappeared in just two years.

The toll is based on death certificates, but most experts believe this is an undercount given the number of diagnoses likely missed in the spring of 2020, when the virus was poorly understood and testing were rare.

At that time, 1 million deaths sounded like an apocalyptic prediction, a dire forecast created by statistical models that assumed everything would go wrong.

“I’ve never seen a pattern of the illnesses I’ve treated where the worst-case scenario actually happened,” Anthony Fauci said in March 2020. “So when you use numbers like 1m, 1.5m, 2m, it’s almost certainly off the charts. Now it’s not impossible but very, very unlikely.

Fauci at the time predicted between 100,000 and 200,000 dead, a figure that ridiculed the Trump administration for being too pessimistic.

” It’s tragic. I am saddened, as a doctor, scientist and public health official, to see that this country with all our resources is going to end up with more than a million dead because of this epidemic,” Fauci told POLITICO on Tuesday. . . “And many of those deaths could have been preventable. There is no doubt about it.

Fauci added that he hopes this sobering step will “draw attention” to the risks for unvaccinated people and prompt them to reconsider.

“If you look at the difference in hospitalizations and deaths, between vaccinated and unvaccinated, you know that number is screaming at us why we should get more people vaccinated,” he said.

How Covid-19 kept coming back

Daily deaths, seven-day average


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