ATLANTA — From Chipper Jones to Freddie Freeman to Matt Olson, the Braves have spent the last three decades being the Mets’ primary tormentors. Even for New York’s best teams during that span, the Braves have been the ultimate boss.
Two years ago, the Mets went to Atlanta for their penultimate series of the regular season, needing only one goal to take control of the National League East race. They didn’t get there. Thanks to a monstrous series from Olson and a classic performance from Atlanta’s bullpen, the Braves swept the Mets, who settled for a wild-card spot and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
This year’s Mets team, which features much of the same offensive core, would love nothing more than to get some revenge when the clubs meet for a three-game series beginning Tuesday at Truist Park.
“I feel like we’ve been playing playoff games for about a week now, and we shouldn’t treat them any differently,” Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo said. “You go out there, it’s going to be high energy, it’s going to be a playoff atmosphere, and it’s going to be great.”
Heading into this new season, it’s the Braves who are struggling. Despite winning four of five, Atlanta enters the series with a two-game deficit in the National League wild-card standings. Anything other than a sweep of the Mets would leave them unable to control their own destiny heading into the final weekend. And the Braves continue to play without key contributors Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Spencer Strider, all of whom are out for the regular season.
But the Mets are also vulnerable, even if they are on stronger footing than their rivals. They are also missing a key player in Francisco Lindor. And they are just three losses away from returning to the same position they were in 2022, needing help in their final three games to achieve their goals.
When are the matches and how can I watch them?
The match times are as follows:
Tuesday, 7:20 p.m. ET
Wednesday, 7:20 p.m. ET
Thursday, 7:20 p.m. ET
All three games will be broadcast on SNY in the New York area and on Bally Sports South around Atlanta.
Nothing less than total control over each team’s respective playoff destiny.
If the Mets win at least two games, they will clinch a wild-card spot in Atlanta. If they win at least one game, they will maintain control of their destiny heading into their final three games of the regular season in Milwaukee.
But if the Braves win all three games, they will leave the series with a one-game lead over the Mets and complete control of the championship. their their own destiny. This is the only scenario in which the Mets would need help from other teams on the final weekend of the season.
The winner of this series will also win the season series against their division rivals. This would give them a chance to break the tie if they were to finish the regular season tied in the standings.
What happened when these two teams met earlier this season?
This will be the fourth time they have met. In April, the Mets won two of three in Atlanta thanks to a 16-run offense in the final game. In May, the Braves won two of three in New York, losing the final game on a walk-off. And in July, the two clubs split a four-game series in Queens.
In terms of games, the Mets and Braves have split all 10 of their meetings, which partly explains the impact of this series.
Why is it important to win the head-to-head series?
When MLB expanded the playoffs to their current format in 2022, it also eliminated Game 163 tiebreakers. Therefore, holding a head-to-head tiebreaker could mean the difference between playing into October and losing a game.
How do the rotations line up for this series?
The Mets are counting on Luis Severino, David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They moved Severino up the rotation to start Tuesday’s opener, so he’ll also be available for Game 162 if that game means anything to their playoff chances.
The Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale and Max Fried in that order. Sale’s fastball dipped below 90 mph in the latter stages of his five-inning effort against the Reds on Thursday. That may have influenced the decision to give him an extra day of rest, instead of starting him Tuesday to give him the option to also start the regular-season finale, if necessary, on normal rest.
Phillies: 18 1/3 innings, five earned runs (2.45 ERA)
Dodgers: six innings, two earned runs (3.00 ERA)
Padres: Seven innings, one earned run (1.29 ERA)
Mets: Seven innings, zero earned runs
Brewers and D-backs: no departures
What is the recent history between these two teams at Truist Park?
This year, the Mets won two of three games in their only trip to Atlanta. That was in April.
Of course, the most relevant narrative arc points to September 2022, when the Mets entered Truist Park needing only a win to effectively clinch the NL East. Instead, the Braves swept them to regain control of the division and send the Mets into a downward spiral. New York would love nothing more than to return the favor this week.
Are there any notable injuries?
The Mets remain hopeful that Lindor, who suffered a lower back injury Sept. 13 in Philadelphia, will be back by the time the series begins Tuesday. Lindor received a facet joint injection last Thursday and has been recovering from that injection, increasing his baseball activities nearly every day. But it’s unclear how effective Lindor will be when he returns, or even if he’ll be able to return this week. He said Sunday that he doesn’t expect to play without pain for the rest of the season.
It should also be noted that Kodai Senga will be unable to play in the regular season due to an inflamed triceps. The Mets had entered September with the hope that Senga could pitch an inning or two in the series against the Braves, but that will no longer be possible.
The Braves lost Strider after a hot start and Acuña after just two months. Six members of their Opening Day roster (Strider included) have missed at least two months this year. Ozzie Albies is coming back from a broken left wrist, but the ambidextrous hitter exclusively hits right-handed. Riley hopes to return sometime in October if the Braves make the playoffs.
How fresh is each bullpen?
Keep an eye on Edwin Diaz, whose contract the Mets signed in a big way over the weekend. He recorded four outs Saturday and six more Sunday. While Diaz plans to be ready to pitch in the series opener in Atlanta, the Mets may leave him alone for at least a day to avoid burning him out. But everyone else in their bullpen should be ready to play.
The Braves also used relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias for one inning Saturday (15 pitches) and two more Sunday (28 pitches). Monday’s off day also should benefit top prep options Pierce Johnson, who pitched for a third straight day Sunday, and Joe Jiménez, who pitched for the third time in four days Saturday.
Is there anything else fans should know?
While Acuña won’t be active, his younger brother Luisangel will be. Several members of their family will be at the series, and they plan to swap jerseys before one of the games. Since Lindor went down, Luisangel has been indispensable to the Mets, batting .379 and having a 1.228 OPS as the team’s everyday shortstop.
Olson has gotten off to a slow start to the season, but he ranks first among National League players and fourth among all MLB players with a 1.006 OPS since July 31. The first baseman is one home run away from joining Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso as the only players to have hit 30-plus runs in each of the 162 full seasons played since 2019.
