Vice President Harris speaks to student volunteers during a stop at the Community College of Philadelphia for a voter registration training session in Philadelphia.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
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Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
President Biden had a problem with young people. Vice President Harris may not.
According to a new poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, Harris holds a 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters aged 18 to 29.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Harris leading Trump, 61 percent to 30 percent, in a matchup that includes third-party candidates. Among registered voters alone, Harris’ lead narrows slightly, but Trump still leads her by 23 points.
The results represent a marked improvement for Democrats since Harvard’s spring poll of young people, which found Biden leading Trump by 13 percentage points among likely voters and just seven percentage points among registered voters under 30. At the time, young left-leaning Americans across the country told NPR they were unhappy with their presidential options.
“This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall mood and preferences of young Americans as the campaign enters its final stretch,” John Della Volpe, polling director at the Institute of Politics, said in a statement. “The increased enthusiasm of Gen Z and young millennials signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”
It’s a promising sign for Harris, who is counting on strong support from young people. Voters under 30 played a role decisive role in several key states where margins were tight in 2020 and overall voted for Biden by a 24-point margin nationally.
A big change in commitment
The latest poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 people under the age of 30 from September 4 to 16, highlights a notable shift in engagement after Harris took over the ticket. point to points in voter registrations during the week that Biden dropped out of the race, with the largest number coming from young Americans, particularly women and women of color.
While it’s unclear who these people will ultimately vote for, these are groups that tend to vote Democratic. And that interest, particularly among young women, is reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll.
In the spring poll, young women voted for Biden by 22 points over Trump, but in this latest poll, their support for Harris is even more pronounced, by a 47-point margin. Harris has also gained ground among young men, but at comparatively lower rates. Biden had only a five-point lead in the spring. Under Harris, that lead has grown to 17 points.
Additionally, a growing number of young Democrats say they will definitely vote this fall, rising from 66% in the spring to 74% in this latest poll. Republicans are less interested: In the spring poll, 64% pledged to vote, compared with 60% now.
Nearly a third of independents said they would definitely vote, down from this time four years ago.
Meme hype may not translate into votes
Harris’ growing enthusiasm after launching her presidential campaign has been linked to a series of viral internet memes remixing her past comments and speeches. It’s a style that the campaign continued to kiss in its digital organization and social media.
Despite the likes and shares, the poll found that half of young Americans say memes about Harris have had no effect on their opinion of her, and six in 10 also said memes about Trump have had no effect on their opinion of him.
On current issues, the poll found that young Americans continue to trust Trump more on issues related to the economy, national security, immigration and the war between Israel and Hamas – but his lead is razor-thin, just a few percentage points.
Harris is well ahead on issues like climate change, abortion and education. And despite lagging behind Trump on some issues, Harvard researchers say Harris has gained voters’ trust overall, compared to Biden.
“This is a phenomenon that’s happening virtually everywhere, on every issue,” said Anil Cacodcar, a Harvard student and president of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “We’re seeing a shift toward Harris.”
