But the numbers match general assessments on the state of the House map from strategists from both parties, as well as close results from the 2021 statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Overall, the crunch polls suggest some super-blue seats could be in play in November, which would mean the Democrats may have to spend precious resources on defense there – especially because they lack well-appointed incumbents. financed.
The most encouraging poll for Republicans came in Oregon’s new 6th District, where Republican Mike Erickson led Democratic State Rep. Andrea Salinas by 7 points, 47% to 40%, with 13% undecided. In a district Biden won by nearly 14 points, his approval rating is an underwater 20 points. Republicans lead on a wildcard 7-point poll — a rough reality for a seat Democrats pulled to be sure.
Erickson, a supply chain logistics consultant, put some of his own money into the race: He raked in $1.1 million in the second quarter, compared to $800,000 for Salinas. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted July 26-28 by Cygnal for the Erickson Campaign and the National Republican Campaign Committee, contacting voters via live calls and text messages. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Oregon has become a surprising pressure point for Democrats, who are defending three open seats in the state. The district most at risk is the one Democratic Representative Kurt Schrader lost in a primary in May. Now a more progressive Democrat is defending the turf against a credible GOP nominee in a seat Biden won by 9 points.
“Voters in historically blue seats reject the Democrats’ failed economic record of tax hikes, record prices and recession,” said NRCC communications director Michael McAdams.
Still, Democrats are confident in their ability to hold onto those seats, citing Kansans’ recent endorsement of abortion rights at the polls as a sign that voters have soured on the GOP and its agenda. And Democrats pushed back against Oregon’s 6th District Republican poll, citing an internal Democratic poll from early July that found a tie race between Salinas and Erickson.
“Kansas voters just showed us how toxic the Republican brand is and now House Republicans are shaking in their boots because they have to stand up for their anti-freedom MAGA agenda,” the DCCC spokesperson said. , Chris Hayden. “Democrats are the party of freedom, justice and putting people before politics.”
Still, Republicans insist there are deep blue districts hosting such tight poll results, showing that the political environment continues to rapidly shift in their favor. In Oregon, they also see a way to challenge incumbent district representative Peter DeFazio, who is leaving the west coast of the state.
A July 25-28 survey of 400 likely voters in DeFazio’s district found a 5-point race, with Democrat Val Hoyle leading Republican Alek Skarlatos, 46% to 41%, with 13% undecided. Skarlatos, a former National Guardsman who foiled a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train, is making a second run for the seat that Biden won by 13 points.
Biden is under water in the district by 16 points, according to the poll, which was conducted by Moore Information for the Skarlatos campaign and the NRCC. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points and she surveyed 400 likely voters via live calls.
Meanwhile, a mid-July poll by the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top super PAC, found Republican Erik Aadland trailing Democrat Brittany Pettersen by 2 points, 44% to 42% in an open seat. rooted in suburban Denver, where the Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter is retiring. Biden carried the district by 15 points in 2020.
For Republicans, the polls are also an encouraging sign that they remain competitive in Democratic-leaning seats following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
A recent poll of 400 likely voters in an open district in California’s Central Valley found Democrat Adam Gray ahead of Republican John Duarte by 4 points, 47% to 43%. Biden is under water by 9 points (43% approval, 52% disapproval) in a district he carried by 11 points in 2020. The seat is open after the redistricting because Rep. Josh Harder (D -California) is running in a more Democratic position. -Friendly neighborhood nearby.
But that poll also included good news for Democrats: They lead the generic poll there, 46% to 43%, and Biden’s approval has at least increased somewhat. An internal Duarte campaign poll from May found Biden underwater by 13 points with his disapproval at 39%.
The live caller survey was conducted August 3-7 for the NRCC and the Duarte campaign. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.