As Russia moves closer to full control of Ukraine’s Luhansk region, the debate over the future course of the war intensifies. Optimists believe that a fully equipped Ukrainian army could halt Russia’s advance and bring its army back to before February. 24 dividing line. Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, says Ukraine can win the war if the United States steps up its efforts to get what it needs. “We just need to slam the accelerator pedal on the floor and help them get there as quickly as possible.” The pessimists believe that even if the Ukrainians get everything they asked for, they will not be able to dislodge the Russians from the territory they conquered. This debate is largely irrelevant, because no one really knows how much more success Ukraine would have if it had all the weapons it wanted.
In the first phase of the war, Ukraine’s ability to thwart the Russian strike on Kyiv and Kharkiv surprised many experts. In the second stage, Russia’s ability to regroup and execute a more targeted attack defied the predictions of observers who believed that its early losses of men, materiel and morale had dealt the invasion a fatal blow. . Recent Russian successes, capped by the surrender of Lysychansk, prompt political analysts and political leaders to move from the premature exuberance of the first weeks of the war to the exaggerated gloom of today.