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GDP tracking estimates rise after today’s US data

Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley see rise

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is up 8.6% from 8.2% for the fourth quarter. This is the first update in a week.

After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the immediate forecast for real growth in gross private domestic investment in the fourth quarter has dropped from 10.3% to 12, 5%, while the immediate forecast of the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter fell from -0.45 percentage point to 0.44 percentage point. These gains were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast for real personal consumption spending growth in the fourth quarter from 9.2% to 7.9%.

Separately, Morgan Stanley also increased its tracker to 8.7%.

“By incorporating today’s wealth of data, including 3Q21 GDP revisions, more robust spending, strong inventories, strong durable goods orders and higher new home sales, we are significantly increasing our followed by GDP in Q4 from 3.0% to 8.7%. “

New home sales? It’s a bit confusing considering it was lower than the estimates with a drop in September numbers. Either way, the point is there and all the signs point to healthy consumption.

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