Morgan Stanley analysis shows Tesla’s share of the U.S. electric vehicle market fell to 69% in February, from 81% a year ago.
According to this analysis, Tesla’s sales in the United States continue to climb due to the increased appetite of American car buyers for electric vehicles. Morgan Stanley estimates that industry-wide U.S. electric vehicle sales rose 34% in February, compared to a year earlier, even as sales of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles fell 5.4%, according to the analysis.
You’re here (TSLA) only reports quarterly global sales, not monthly or US sales like many other automakers do. Tesla likely enjoyed a 5.4% gain in US sales in February, according to Morgan Stanley analysis.
New electric offerings from traditional automakers helped their combined sales of electric vehicles in the United States more than double to 9,527 vehicles. And Ford’s Mach-E, which took home SUV of the Year honors this year and began deliveries in late January, accounted for 3,739 sales in February, according to figures from Ford (F).
“Mach-E accounted for almost 100% of [Tesla] loss of shares, ”said Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley auto analyst, in a note earlier this week.
Other experts said they also believe Tesla is losing some of its share of the electric vehicle market.
“We’ve been expecting this for some time,” said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at AutoTrader. “Tesla was the only game in town. Now that’s not the case. We expect Tesla’s sales to increase as the market grows, but there will also be theft of Tesla’s market share.”
A Ford spokesperson would not comment directly on Morgan Stanley’s analysis. The company said 70% of Mach-E buyers were new to Ford, making the car much more valuable to the automaker. More than 20% of Mach-E sales have been made in California, where Tesla is particularly popular.
Tesla faces competition from automakers such as Porsche, BMW, Audi and Jaguar for its Model S luxury sedan and Model X SUV, as well as competition from Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Nissan and now Ford for its Cheaper Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV.
But the Model 3 and Model Y are now the mainstay of Tesla’s sales, accounting for around 90% of its global sales in the fourth quarter.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Morgan Stanley’s analysis.
Tesla is already behind schedule Volkswagen (VLKAF), world number 2 in electric vehicle sales in many European markets, including Norway, where electric vehicles now represent the majority of new vehicle sales.
And it faces new competition from General Motors (GM), which has just launched a compact SUV version of its American electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt. The Bolt EUV will go on sale in early summer, along with a new version of the current Bolt sedan. The price of both will be lower than Model 3 and Model Y.
And that’s just the start of a wave of new electric vehicles promised by mainstream automakers in the years to come. Volvo announced this week that it will only offer electric vehicles by 2030, while Ford said it will only sell electric passenger cars in Europe by 2030. GM said it plans to sell only emission-free vehicles by 2035.
The aggressive targets on electric vehicles are driven both by stricter environmental regulations around the world and by buyers’ growing appetite for electric vehicles.
And while EVs are now more expensive to build than comparable gasoline engines, improvements in economies of scale will likely reduce the cost of parts, including large batteries, which it is less expensive and therefore more profitable to build electric vehicles. Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and, according to a Ford estimate, require 30% fewer man-hours to assemble than traditional cars.