As I scoured Yahoo’s ADP for the perfect candidates to make or break this fantasy football season, several high-risk, early-season running backs stood out like sore thumbs.
You could argue that a quarterback like Anthony Richardson is a make-or-break candidate given his ADP and limited experience, but rushing upfield gives him a solid foundation and ensures he’ll end up as QB1 if he stays healthy.
A receiver like Garrett Wilson is a risk with a first-round ADP despite never finishing higher than a W3 in points per game, but even at age 40 and coming off a major injury, Aaron Rodgers makes Wilson a solid WR1 candidate.
Tight end ADPs have dropped overall, meaning the absence of a tight end doesn’t have a real impact on the season.
It’s the running backs with the highest level of volatility combined with their ADP that will define your fantasy season, but which running backs are the TRUE The players who will make the difference in the world of fantasy in 2024?
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
I was debating whether to include Williams or not, because if you’ve been following my work with Yahoo this preseason, you know I’m convinced Williams will be a second-round pick. As I debated whether to include him, Sean McVay announced that Williams would return punts this season and sent fantasy football managers into a downward spiral of pessimism and “I told you so” thinking.
When the NFL changed the rules for punt returns, we expected some potential big names to try their hand at punt returners. However, the idea of returning punts for a 5-foot-9, 194-pound running back seems like a malpractice… or a punishment. Williams is no stranger to punt returns, but the unnecessary touches do raise concerns. To be clear, fantasy managers shouldn’t take this as an indication that Williams has lost his job. McVay’s exact quote was:
“It’s another opportunity for him to touch the ball and have an impact on the game. And we feel comfortable with that because we have confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers who are capable of replacing him if need be.”
It’s alarming, but not Cam Akers level alarming.
It seems like McVay just wants to use Williams creatively, and it’s a great reminder that we haven’t really seen a relevant Rams running back in the preseason. We really don’t know what the projected workload distribution is. The Rams avoid using the preseason for starters or fringe starters. Even a player like Tutu Atwell wasn’t used in the preseason. Neither Williams, Corum, nor Rivers made a preseason appearance. That means we’re going into the season blind and just trusting Williams to hold his role.
Again, I am confident that Williams will be the Rams’ RB1 and will thrive as long as he is on the field. However, Williams is a pick that will dictate the direction of your fantasy season. Williams has rushed for over 1,100 yards, averaging five yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns in just 12 games. If he repeats that usage, he is the best choice at running back behind Christian McCaffrey. He will either lead you to the playoffs or cost you the waiver for a new RB1. There is no in-between.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Achane is very similar to Williams in that he is a smaller back with a history of injury issues and a high ADP. The difference between the two backs is that Williams is the presumed RB1 due to his status as the clear RB1 in 2023. Achane was not the Dolphins’ starter in 2023, and we have no indication that he will be the clear RB1 in 2024.
Achane’s ADP is a pure positive play. When you have the impact on fantasy football that Achane had in 2023, you earn a high ADP. However, the fact remains that Raheem Mostert is still an integral part of the Dolphins’ offense and finished as the RB2 overall in half-PPR and RB3 in points per game average. It’s important to note that Achane’s high ADP isn’t pulled out of thin air. Achane was the RB4 in points per game average last season — yes, the Dolphins produced two top-five backs.
When you continue to dive into the individual stats, it’s clear why Achane is the favorite back for fantasy managers heading into 2024. Mostert had the better volume stats, but Achane had a whopping 7.8 yards per attempt, 21 carries of 20+ yards to Mostert’s 12, and a higher fantasy points per snap rate. Achane was simply more explosive and more productive. Mostert was still great, but Achane’s stats were unreal.
Achane’s potential is huge, but it remains to be seen if he can be used over the course of a season. With a borderline second-round ADP and no clear RB1 role, Achane is potentially the most decisive player in 2024.
Bijan Robinson, running back, Atlanta Falcons
When you look at Robinson’s overall ranking in 2023, which is RB9 in half-PPR and RB17 in points per game, you get very encouraged by his potential in 2024. Robinson has escaped Arthur Smith (my personal sworn enemy) and has a true RB1 overall ceiling.
Robinson is in a prime position to make a leap forward and justify his ADP. Kirk Cousins is not a goal-line threat. The Falcons have arguably the easiest schedule in the entire league and should play positive game scenarios that benefit Robinson and provide plenty of goal-line opportunities.
On the other hand, when you compare Robinson to his Round 1 counterparts at running back, he’s clearly the candidate most likely to not reach his ceiling. Christian McCaffrey is the reigning RB1 with multiple top-three finishes. After a four-game surge back from an ACL injury, Breece Hall was the overall RB2 from Week 5 through the rest of the season. Jonathan Taylor also has an overall RB1 season under his belt.
I’m 100% confident that Robinson will bring in a lot of value based on his ADP, but I recognize that Robinson is a game-changing player who will either get you to the playoffs or leave you frustrated and disappointed.
