There is evidence from Google Trends suggesting that internet searches for Bitcoin price can help predict major upward market moves.
In 2017, Semrush, a search engine marketing agency, reported that bitcoin prices had a 91% correlation with the volume of bitcoin-related Google searches. This means that the bitcoin price has risen and fallen along with the number of bitcoin-related searches.
While the Semrush study showed that search volume increased as the price of bitcoin rose, it did not specify whether the searches predicted the exchange rate between bitcoin and the dollar. Bitcoin searches increased by 450% in the five months between April and September. The estimated volume of Bitcoin-related search keywords in one year was 51.4 million.
Correlation Between Bitcoin Searches and Price
The most common assumption is that searches increase when the price of bitcoin increases. In other words, people’s interest follows price growth. While not entirely untrue, data shows that an increase in interest in bitcoin-related research preceded the bitcoin boom. But again, that doesn’t mean that a spike in searches will affect prices.
According to Semrush, the correlation between Bitcoin-related searches and the price was 82% globally and 79% in the United States. The search popularity of Bitcoin was also higher than that of fiat currencies. In 2021, searches for bitcoin were seven times more than the dollar and 42 times more than the euro. There may be many sites and app platforms that provide exchange rates for dollars and euros, but Bitcoin is relatively new, which means users will have to do some research online. The interest gap is even bigger in the US, probably because people are less likely to research their own currency. Searches for bitcoin are 57 times more popular than searches for US dollars and 70 times more popular than euros.
The bitcoin boom has contributed to increased interest and many prediction sites expect this trend to continue throughout 2022. Major bitcoin-related websites have reported an increase in site visits; the websites that received the most visits are CoinMarketCap, Binance, and Coinbase. For example, CoinMarketCap reported 60 million average monthly visits between 2017 and 2021. In 2021, this number increased to 194 million.
Google searches for Bitcoin-related terms are about to grow
During the bitcoin boom of 2017, the keyword “Bitcoin” hit 100 in Google Trends. (Note: the range of values for a term in Google Trends is between zero and 100.) The search term was at a score of 70 between January and May 2021, which correlates to the massive proliferation of bitcoin prices at a record high of $64,000. The popularity of the term is indicated by search interest in a particular region over a five-year period. However, the keyword bitcoin price has a Google Trends value of 16. This means bitcoin price searches have great potential for growth. In other words, bitcoin searches on Google might increase as the uptrend resumes.
Searches increase as more people watch the price increase and are fueled by the fear of missing out. This shows that interest in Bitcoin was higher when Bitcoin was trading above $50,000 than when it was below $20,000. Here’s more surprising news: bitcoin has fallen below $35,000, and Google’s trend value for the bitcoin price keyword is 16. The price drop and Google searches likely indicate that the people lost interest.
The correlation between searches related to Bitcoin and its price is quite strong. An increase in Bitcoin searches is reflected in the price. It is prudent to keep an eye on Google searches for Bitcoin-related terms. An increase will likely precede the next bitcoin price hike.
This is a guest post by Jerry Goddard. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or bitcoin magazine.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.