By a stunning three-to-one measure, a new poll shows that Missouri GOP primary voters are more likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate in the upcoming August primary if that candidate supports an alternative to the GOP leader in Senate, Mitch McConnell.
The poll, conducted for current Senate and campaign favorite of former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, asked respondents: “If you knew a candidate had pledged to vote out Mitch McConnell as leader of the Senate, would that make you more or less likely to vote for this candidate?
Overall, 49% of GOP primary voters in Missouri said this would make them more likely to support this candidate. Just 16% said it would make them less likely – meaning there are more threes in support for ditching McConnell than keeping him – and 36% said it would make no difference.
What goes even deeper than this overall number is the breakdown by demographic group, which shows, among other stunning results, that a majority of women surveyed – 51% – said they were more likely to support the anti-McConnell candidate. The majority of people under 54 – 50% among 45-54 year olds, 54% among 35-44 year olds and 53% among 18-34 year olds – were more likely to support the anti-McConnell candidate.
In the Missouri GOP US Senate primary, there is only one candidate — Greitens, who leads the crowded field — who has pledged to vote against McConnell. Both Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-MO) repeatedly declined to answer the question, and despite their respective support by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Josh Hawley (R -MO) are seen as potentially close allies of McConnell should they win the election. Greitens, on the other hand, has made McConnell’s defeat a centerpiece of his campaign, working tirelessly to put him at the forefront of every argument he makes, whether it’s pushing back against unsubstantiated allegations from the various scandals of which he has been the victim or from the political criticism of business as usual in Washington.
Among supporters of each of the other candidates, polling data also shows that their supporters are more likely to support someone else if they find out that another candidate opposes McConnell when their candidate does not. not. Among Hartzler supporters, 38% said they were more likely to support a different candidate if the other candidate opposed McConnell – while just 20% said they were less likely. Among Schmitt supporters, the numbers run even deeper: 48% said they were more likely to back someone else if the other candidate had pledged to vote against McConnell, while only 11% said they weren’t. Among supporters of Rep. Billy Long (R-MO) — another candidate in the race who also hasn’t publicly opposed McConnell — 50% said they were more likely to support another candidate if that candidate pledged to oppose McConnell, while only 18% said they were less likely.
The anti-McConnell sentiment captured in the poll is also valid across geographic boundaries, ideological divides within the GOP, education level and voter intensity. The greatest opposition support for McConnell comes from non-white GOP voters, 56% of whom said they were more likely to support a candidate who pledged to vote against McConnell for GOP leader, while only 7% said they were less likely to support such a candidate. .
The fact that a prominent US GOP Senate campaign is even polling this question — and releasing the results to the public, which Greitens’ campaign has done by providing them exclusively to Breitbart News — is remarkable in itself. Just a few years ago this would have been unthinkable – a poll against the current GOP leader of the elected body in which a GOP candidate is seeking a seat – but McConnell’s standing among Republicans has clearly weakened. at historically low levels.
Moreover, that candidate, Greitens — according to the same poll — is actually leading the GOP field. This voting test question, which Greitens’ team posted the other day, shows Greitens in first place with 26%. Hartzler comes second with just 19%, and Schmitt is third with 14% with Long after that with 7%. Five percent support Mark McCloskey and 27 percent are undecided.
The survey of 806 likely primary voters was conducted May 2-4 and has a margin of error of 3.48%. It was conducted by the co/effective sounder.