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EURUSD is on track to close below the 200 week moving average.  What does it mean to enter the new trading week?

First close below MA since July 2020.

With EURUSD trading at 1.1554, the pair is poised to close the week below the 200 week moving average. This MA comes in at 1.16657.

Three weeks ago the pair closed just above the MA level. Since then, the closing price for the week has been comfortably above the moving average level. However, it should be noted that the intra-week price has traded above and below the moving average level for the past five weeks of trading. A close below the moving average would be a negative bias and more bearish.

On the downside, the low and 2021 price hit 1.15236. Not far below this level is the midpoint of 50% of the range since the March 2020 low. That midpoint stands at 1.14918. Going back to 2018, 2019 and 2020, there have been a number of swing highs (see the red numbered circles) that have stalled in the swing zone between 1.1491 and 1.15236. This is because price action has been split since 2019 between being below the swing zone and being above the swing zone.

As a result, discussions until next week will be focused on this area. Will the buyers continue to maintain support and push the price higher, or will the sellers take more control and start trading EURUSD below the swing zone and midpoint?

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