English Premier League: Disabling Futures Betting


Believe it or not, the 2022-23 English Premier League season is not that far away.

To host the 2022 World Cup this winter in Qatar, the new campaign will launch on August 6. Unsurprisingly, Manchester City (-160) are consensus favorites to lift the trophy for the third consecutive season. Liverpool (+185) is the most realistic challenger, before a steep fall to Tottenham and Chelsea (+1800).

But I’m not about to price in the futures market, especially not knowing what kind of business Liverpool are running during the summer transfer window. That said, there are a few other markets that pique my interest two months out of season.

So without further ado, here are my top two EPL futures bets for the 2022-23 season.

Rodrigo Bentancur celebrates after a win at Tottenham.
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Best bet 1: Tottenham Hotspur top four (+110, DraftKings)

Tottenham claimed the fourth and final Champions League spot at the end of last season, and I think they will enjoy similar success this season.

Even with the extra set of fixtures, an injection of $150 million will help bolster this Tottenham Hotspur team. Harry Kane appears to be staying put, with Antonio Conte also returning after guiding Spurs to the Champions League.

Even if you put those two personnel moves aside, there’s a lot to love about Tottenham since last season. Since Matchday 11 – Conte’s first game in charge – Spurs have accumulated the third most points in the Premier League. Plus, his offense was clicking on all cylinders. In those 28 matches, Tottenham generated 1.96 expected goals per 90 minutes. In the 10 meetings under Nuno Espirito Santo, Spurs have created just 1.02 xG/90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

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English Premier League: Disabling Futures Betting

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Moreover, Conte’s Tottenham showed a strong ability to win points quickly at home. In 14 appearances under the former EPL winner, Spurs have won all three points in 10 and have only dropped the three points three times.

His defense has also improved, allowing just 0.94 xG/90 minutes in 28 matches, compared to 1.3 xG/90 in 10 matches under Santo.

For all these reasons, I would play this market at +100 or better.

Chelsea's Timo Werner in action with Wolverhampton's Francisco Trincao on Saturday.
Chelsea’s Timo Werner in action with Wolverhampton’s Francisco Trincao.
Reuters

Best bet 2: Wolverhampton will be relegated (+550, DraftKings)

I can’t stress this enough: Wolves are lucky to still be in the Premier League after last season.

This side ran so hot and avoided embarrassing results on multiple occasions. Manager Bruno Lage’s side posted a minus-5 goal differential in the 2021-22 campaign, but simultaneously had an expected minus-24.4 goal differential. The latter figure is the third worst result in the Premier League.


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On the road last year, Wolves had an even goal differential on minus-12.1 xGDiff, again per fbref.com. He also generated the second-fewest expected goals in the league and underperformed his xGA tally by 17.3 goals.

Most of that defensive record can be attributed to goalkeeper Jose Sa, who conceded 43 from an expected 50.5 after the shot, the biggest gap in the Premier League.

With Raul Jimenez rumored to be on his way out, I don’t see how Wolves’ attack can keep up with a defense that other EPL teams are beginning to figure out. For these reasons, I’m happy to pick up a flyer on Wolves’ return to the Championship.

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