The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have passed the test in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election as some early exit polls predicted the party would retain the most populous state from the country. The Uttar Pradesh assembly has 403 seats and a party or coalition will need to win 202 seats to secure a majority.
The Matrize-Poll results on Uttar Pradesh predicted that the BJP would win by a large margin. The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP is expected to win between 262 and 277 seats, according to the results of the Matrize-Poll survey.
Samajwadi Party+ (SP+), led by Akhilesh Yadav, the BJP’s main challenger in UP, is expected to win between 119 and 134 seats, according to Matrize-Poll results. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati could be reduced to 15 seats, while the Congress, led by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, could win between three and eight seats, according to the results of Matrize-Poll.
SP is fighting against the 2022 UP Assembly elections in alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), led by Jayant Chaudhary.
The P-MARQ exit poll gave the BJP 240 seats in UP. He said the SP+ could get 140 seats, the BSP could win 17 seats, while the Congress could be reduced to just four seats. The P-MARQ exit poll also predicted Others and Independents could get two seats.
The Pollstrat exit poll gave 211-225 seats to BJP and 146-160 seats to SP+ in UP. Pollstrat predicted that everyone else would get 20-30 seats. ETG gave 230-245 seats to BJP in UP, 150-165 seats to SP+ and 7-16 seats to all others.
Dismissing pre-election polls that showed the BJP had the advantage in Uttar Pradesh’s elections, Yadav said on Monday that the ruling party would be knocked out of the state when the results are announced on March 10. “Let them show everything they have. We win with a majority,” he said.
Months after demonetization in 2017, most UP exit polls predicted a stalled assembly, but also said the BJP would become the largest party. With the exception of India Today-Axis survey (251 to 279) and Today’s Chanakya (285), all other exit polls had indicated the BJP would win 160-180 seats. In 2017, most exit polls also predicted that the SP-Congress alliance would win 80 to 160 seats.
But the pollsters were wrong. When the final tally emerged, the SP-Congress alliance had only managed to win 54 of the seats (47 for the SP and only seven for Congress).
The BJP surprised them all and won with 312 seats. The BJP tally stood at 325 with their allies (Apna Dal (Sonelal) and Suheldev BSP won nine and four seats respectively).
The accuracy of exit polls has been the subject of debate over the years. Experts say they are not accurate and only provide a general trend and sense of direction as to the nation’s mood.
First post: STI