Downward revision of growth discounters: Here’s why

Downward revisions to Morocco’s economic growth expectations for this year continue. After the IMF, the World Bank and Bank Al-Maghrib, it is the turn of the rating agency Fitch to revise its projections, due to the negative impact of the Omicron variant on mobility and the tourism industry. , among others.

The downward revisions of growth expectations for the Moroccan economy for this year are increasing, as well as for global activity as a whole. The latest comes from the rating agency Fitch, which is now counting on Moroccan GDP growth of 3.2% against an initial forecast of 3.4%. A revision that the agency attributes to “the negative impact of the Omicron variant on mobility and the tourism industry”. Fitch notes that the measures taken by Morocco to combat the spread of the pandemic are among the strictest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which has helped to contain the current wave. However, these measures will hurt consumer confidence and tourism, she noted, saying economic activity will need time to pick up after the restrictions are lifted. That said, the rating agency believes growth has proven to benefit from strong government support.

The IMF has also revised down its growth forecast for Morocco in 2022 from 3.1% announced in its “Global Growth Forecasts”, published at the time of the autumn meetings last year, to 3% published last December following the Fund’s last consultations for 2021, under Article IV. Similarly, the World Bank expects Morocco to record economic growth of 3.2% for this year, against 3.4% previously predicted. A revision that the Bretton Woods institution explains by a possible slowdown in national agricultural production. Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), for its part, reduced its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.9% announced on December 21 at the last quarterly meeting of its Board, after a forecast of 3 % in October 2021.

The Central Bank estimates that during this year and next year, “the pace of activity will largely depend on the evolution of the health situation at the national and international levels and on the restrictions that the authorities could bring to put in place. in place “. BAM expects that the value added of non-agricultural activities will continue to improve at the rate of 3.2% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023 and, under the assumption of average cereal harvests of 75 MQx annually, that of the agricultural sector would decline by 2.8% in 2022 and would increase by 2% in 2023. As regards the High Commission for Planning (HCP), it has not yet revealed its hopes for this year. Note that the HCP regularly publishes its consumers for the current year during the month of January as part of the forecast economic budget.


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