Daily markets: the market awaits the minutes of the Fed


The big picture today

Asia-Pacific equity indices ended today’s session higher across the board except for Japan’s Nikkei and India’s Sensex which closed down 0.26% and 0.56%, respectively. Today’s results were more mixed, with Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries gaining 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 0.29%, Korea’s KOSPI 0.44% and Taiwan’s TAIEX by 0.88%. China’s Shanghai Composite led the way, closing up 1.19% on the day. At midday, European equity indices are up across the board except for the UK, which is down slightly, and US futures are pointing to a relatively flat market opening later this morning.

Stocks continue to seek stronger fundamentals as investors scan through the latest corporate earnings reports and minimal economic data as they await the release this afternoon of minutes from the Fed’s May monetary policy meeting. . Coming out of that meeting, Fed Chairman Powell set expectations for an additional 50 basis points in rate hikes at the June and July Fed meetings, but that behind-the-scenes view may offer some insight. clues about the aggressiveness of the Fed after these meetings. No doubt readers of these minutes will consider what Fed officials might be looking for to assess the success of their fight against inflation, as well as the extent of the pain expected in the process. The Fed’s reported price action, coupled with insights from those meeting minutes, will form the backdrop for Friday’s release of the April PCE Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Fed.

Data download

International economy

This morning saw the final March release of Japan’s leading index at 100.8 which has been adjusted down 0.20 from the preliminary release of 101.0. With the exception of the period during the pandemic, this reading is consistent with historical averages over the past decade.

Germany Final Q1 GDP was announced showing some resilience with growth of 0.20% in the first quarter. The preliminary release was a positive sign that the country’s economy had managed to stave off its declining second quarter of growth. For reference, two consecutive quarters of negative growth are widely accepted as the signal that an economy is in recession. This release gives Germany a year-on-year growth rate of 3.70%, which is a positive sign but still below the pre-pandemic first quarter growth rate.

Both Germany and France released consumer confidence surveys with the German outlook for June at -26, slightly below expectations of -25.2 but ahead of the previous reading of -26.6. France’s consumer confidence for May at 86.0 came under expectations of 89 and the previous reading of 87.0.

Domestical economy

Early in the morning we will have the latest weekly data on MBA mortgage applications, which have fallen as consumers grapple with rising interest rates. At 8:30 a.m. ET, April’s durable orders will be reported, and the consensus calls for a 0.6% increase, a little slower than the 0.8% gain seen in March. After the market opens, weekly crude oil inventory data from the EIA will be released, which they say could influence how oil prices trade for the day. And as we discussed above at 2 p.m. ET, the minutes of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting in May will be released.

Markets

A lack of conviction in Monday’s market rally, coupled with growth concerns following revised forecasts for Snap (SNAP) and Klarna layoff news led to a mixed day of trading yesterday. As the S&P 500 ended its lows for the day, the Nasdaq Composite closed the day down 2.35% while the Russell fell 1.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly yesterday, thanks to gains of McDonald’s (MCD), Verizon (VZ) and IBM (IBM). Including yesterday’s moves, here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -12.14%
  • S&P 500: -17.30%
  • Nasdaq Compound: -28.00%
  • Russell 2000: -21.40%
  • Bitcoin (USD-BTC): -37.65%
  • Ether (ETH-USD): -47.42%

Stocks to Watch

Prior to the start of trading for stocks listed in the United States, Bank of Montreal (BMO), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Dycom (DY) will be among the handful of companies to release their latest quarterly results.

Whereas Nordström (JWN) announced a net loss of $0.06 per share, slightly worse than the expected loss of $0.04 per share, the company’s revenue for the April quarter jumped 18.6% year-on-year to $3.57 billion, beating consensus of $3.29 billion. Calling on strength in the men’s and women’s apparel, footwear and designer segments, the company also shared improved merchandise margins thanks to favorable pricing and lower markdown rates. For its full year, Nordstrom now sees EPS of $3.20-3.50 versus consensus of $3.17 with revenue for the year up +6%-8% YoY, which suggests $15.7-16.0 billion vs consensus of $15.6 billion.

Shares of Intuit (INTU) rose in aftermarket trading last night after the small business, tax software and credit watchdog released better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year guidance for both its turnover and results. The new full-year revenue forecast is $12.6-12.7 billion, up from the previous forecast of $12.17-12.30 billion and consensus of 12.3 billions of dollars.

Builder Toll Brothers (TOL) beat expectations for revenue and earnings for its April quarter, driven by a 19% year-over-year increase in home sales revenue to $2.2 billion. Backlog value at the end of the quarter was $11.7 billion, up 35% year-on-year as the number of homes in the backlog increased 16% year-on-year to 11,768. company, “While demand is still strong, over the past month it has moderated from the unprecedented pace of the past two years as buyers adjust to higher mortgage rates and other conditions. macroeconomics.” For its July quarter, Toll expects deliveries of 2,750 units with an average delivered price per home of $895-915,000.

Shares of a fast food company Wendy’s (WEN) surged in after-hours trading after its largest holder, Trian Partners, led by investor Nelson Peltz, offered a potential acquisition of the fast-food chain. In response, Wendy’s said it would “carefully” consider any proposal submitted by Trian.

Starbucks (SBUX) and Bolthouse Farms announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement for Bolthouse Farms to acquire the brand and business of Evolution Fresh.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) signed a global company agreement with a car manufacturer Stellantis (STLA)which will deploy Palantir’s Foundry operating system across all of its brands, business functions and factories.

IPOs

No initial public offering (IPO) is expected to take place this week. Readers who want to dig deeper into the schedule of upcoming IPOs should visit Nasdaq’s Latest and Upcoming IPOs page.

After today’s market close

Box (BOX), Elf Beauty (ELF), Guess? (GES), Mimecast (MIME), Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) should publish their latest quarterly results. Investors should be on the lookout for companies that announce their March quarter results in advance. Those interested in learning more about which companies release their reports when head to the Nasdaq earnings calendar.

on the horizon

Thursday, May 26

  • United States: Initial and Continuing Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • United States: GDP (second preliminary reading) – 1st quarter 2022
  • United States: pending home sales – April
  • United States: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories

Friday May 27

  • United States: personal consumption and income – April
  • United States: Michigan Sentiment Index (final) – May

Thought of the day

“History provides crucial insight into market crises: they are inevitable, painful and ultimately surmountable.” ~ Shelby MC Davis

Disclosures

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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