CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday he believes the mid-June stock market low will hold as the low of this terrible year of selling. However, he acknowledged that it won’t be easy and Wall Street bulls face a host of forces that seem to be working against them.
“Sometimes I just want to say to those skeptics, like I constantly say to outsiders, don’t abandon ship,” Cramer said on “Mad Money,” hosting the show from Seattle.
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Cramer said he certainly understands why the bears appeared to be in control despite Monday’s rally building on last week’s rally. In fact, the S&P 500’s advance last week ended a three-week losing streak.
Could we have a bearish rally after weeks of selling? Of course, said Cramer. It’s September after all, the worst month of the year for stocks. And after a terrible August, which is traditionally a pretty good month for equities, he said selling could come back. But he doesn’t think the market will break below the mid-June low.
Cramer said inflation — no matter what Tuesday’s consumer price index says for August — is a problem. How big the problem is is the big question as investors ponder whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points or 50 basis points later this month. The first would be a third consecutive increase of this magnitude. This is what the market is almost unanimously betting on.
Cramer also winks at bearish arguments that the government’s environmental agenda isn’t very market-friendly, that more layoffs are coming at corporate America, and that technology is still way overvalued.
While this is all true, Cramer is focused on improving inflation, not worsening it, as commodity prices peaked a long time ago, but he also favors a bigger 75 rate hike. basis points to help limit wage inflation.
Apart from all that, Cramer sees a really positive market force developing: the Ukrainians driving out the Russians. If that were to happen, he said the prices of oil, petrol and natural gas – all high due to the disruptions of the war – would plummet. This would give a tremendous tailwind to the market.
“Obviously this whole war has been a horrible humanitarian disaster, but if Ukraine can win, that’s huge for the stock market,” Cramer said. “Same for food prices. And the euro could finally make a comeback, allowing our international businesses to earn more money abroad.”
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