As the trajectory of the Delta variant is now known – “stratospheric”, the government spokesperson said on Monday – the increase in cases continues in most territories. Brittany is no exception, even if the situation varies according to the departments. Consequence: this Wednesday, Morbihan came to Ille-et-Vilaine among the departments having crossed the alert threshold of the incidence, exceeding 50 new cases over a week for 100,000 inhabitants.
On July 18, Morbihan recorded 50.7 new confirmed cases per 100,000 Morbihannais. In Ille-et-Vilaine, this rate is 58.7 100,000 inhabitants according to the latest figures available. As a reminder, this rate takes into account the place of residence of the people screened. The cases taken into account therefore concern residents. Similarly, Bretons detected elsewhere are counted in the departments of the region.
Finistère, rather used to being in the lowest rates in France, should soon join the first two above the alert threshold, with 49 cases detected per 100,000 inhabitants. Côtes-d’Armor is the department with the lowest rate, since there have been more than 30 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants since July 17 alone.
Speed worries more than threshold
What does this alert threshold correspond to? He had been set by the health authorities for the fall of 2020, while the indicators deteriorated, with the aim of identifying the territories most affected by an epidemic resumption. This is a relatively low threshold compared to the peaks that we have seen: the incidence had reached 500 at the national level during the peak in autumn, and 200 in all Breton departments. Precisely, its initial goal is to spot these trends early.
Faced with the Delta variant and the vertical tendency curves that it imposes, this threshold has been quickly reached by many departments since the beginning of July. Beyond its crossing, it is the very rapid upward trend that alerts. In Morbihan, this rate barely exceeded 10 at the end of June, and it was 15 in Ille-et-Vilaine. In Brittany, despite everything, the increase is less brutal and starts from lower, but in the Pyrénées-Orientales or in Charente-Maritime, we have seen that it only takes a few days for this rate to be doubled. or three, at very high levels.
The increase in the number of cases is sometimes presented as anecdotal compared to hospitalizations. However, rapid circulation of the virus increases the risk of its mutation and the appearance of new variants. Moreover, the consequences of the disease exist, even without going to the hospital. But above all, the increase in hospitalizations is still lagging behind. At the national level, we see that admissions have started to increase again in recent days, after a continuous decline since April.
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