Consultancy sees Brazil’s super soybean crop and exports increase aggressively in new season

Band Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, July 22 (Reuters)Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to reach 91.5 million tonnes in 2023, from an estimated 77.2 million for 2022, as the world’s largest supplier prepares to plant a super crop.

The projection, made on Friday by private consultancy Safras & Mercado, reflects bullish yield and acreage forecasts for the coming season, which comes after the one in which a drought ruined part of the harvest.

“The resumption of Brazilian production, with new record production potential, should also lead to a new export record,” Safras analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said in the statement.

If this scenario is confirmed, he said that Brazil would be able to recover some of the export market share lost by American soybean producers due to the drop in production during the 2021/2022 cycle. .

According to Roque, strong domestic processing margins and potentially higher demand for biodiesel should also lead to increased domestic crushing activity.

Safras forecasts that soybean grinding in Brazil will amount to 49.5 million tonnes in 2023, compared to 47.9 million tonnes in 2022.

The 2022/2023 soybean season in Brazil will start in September in key states like Mato Grosso. The harvest is expected to reach 154.53 million tonnes, up 18% from the previous cycle, according to data from Safras.

Total demand for Brazilian soybeans – including domestic and export market demand – is forecast at 144.6 million tonnes, up 13% from the previous year. If this projection is confirmed, ending stocks in Brazil would rise by 239%, from 2.93 million tonnes to 9.92 million tonnes, Safras added.

“With the likely super-harvest, ending stocks should have strong growth, even with the increase in consumption,” Le Roque said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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