The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index for November 2021 rose to 114.49 from 113.03 in October.
Gad Levanon, director of the Conference Board Labor Market Institute, said
“The Employment Trends Index continues to grow steadily, suggesting decent prospects for job growth over the coming months. In this context, the disappointing growth of the wage bill in November could be an aberrant trend rather than a new trend. Of course, that depends on the emerging variant of Omicron, a new generic that threatens to extend the impacts of COVID-19 on job growth beyond Delta. “
“On its current trajectory, much of the future job growth is expected to come from sectors still in the process of reopening, including restaurants, hotels, entertainment, personal services and passenger transportation. These industries are relatively labor intensive, so their future recovery will be critical to sustaining strong employment growth. At the same time, the labor supply will struggle to meet the demand for workers as the working-age population in the United States stagnates and baby boomers leave the workforce. We currently expect the unemployment rate, which has already fallen to 4.2%, to approach 3.0% by the end of 2022, which would mark a 70-year low. Indeed, even if pandemic labor supply disruptions completely subside over the coming year, a tight labor market is likely for the foreseeable future. Employers should expect recruitment challenges and quit rates to remain high, fueling upward pressure on wages. “