BMCE capital recommends keeping the Crédit du Maroc share

Aziz Akhannouch assured himself during the meeting with the presidents of the Chambers of Agriculture and the Chambers of Crafts.

BMCE Global Capital Research (BKGR) recommends keeping the title Crédit du Maroc (CDM). This year, the bank should experience a 21% drop in its earning capacity following the non-recurrence of a recovery noted in 2021 on a major file. “Despite this exceptional drop, CDM should show well-fed activity indicators with NBI improving by 4%, mainly thanks to the likely good behavior of interest and commission margins”. In terms of outlook, the takeover by Holmarcom and AtlantaSanad, expected by the end of 2022, should allow the bank to undergo a major strategic turnaround, which should offer it new growth opportunities, in particular expansion in Africa in the medium terms. BKGR analysts thus highlight four strengths of the group. Advantageously, the bank posted, in 2021, a comfortable solvency and Tier ratio. Second, it continues to optimize the cost of resources. Third force: its online bank has achieved a 201% increase in transactions.

Fourthly, the acquisition at the end of 2022 by Holmarcom and AtlantaSanad of Crédit Agricole’s stake in the Bank should allow new sources of growth. Conversely, the CDM must overcome two weaknesses. This is the possibility of deciding on advantageous conditions in terms of international refinancing. The bank will also have to face the very significant weight of future investments in general operating expenses, ie 1 billion dirhams by 2023. With regard to its growth opportunities, analysts reveal several. One of its strengths is the anticipated increase in cash loans and the probable resumption of investment loans in the second half of the year. But not only, since the CDM should continue, in 2022, to ease the cost of risk for banks due to the projected size of write-backs on prospective provisions, following the expected improvement in the quality of the sector’s loan portfolio. . The bank could also realize capital gains this year, in the event of the contribution of assets to OPCIs/securitisations or sale proceeds in the event of outsourcing of the shares held in an OPCI. Finally, CDM should, in the long term, develop the bancassurance segment, in partnership with AtlantaSanad. As for threats, BKGR identified two. The first is the probability of the entry into force of circular 19/G on the classification of receivables in the course of 2022. The second is that linked to the alteration of an increase in risks in the event of a deterioration in the health context.

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