Betting odds show GOP will claw back Congress, contradicting forecaster 538

The betting odds contradict election forecaster FiveThirtyEight’s prediction that Republicans may not reclaim both houses of Congress on Nov. 8.

The difference between forecasting models based on polls and betting market data is notable. FiveThirtyEight’s official predictions give Republicans less than a 50% chance of winning both chambers, while members of the public who have bet money on the midterm election put the odds at 75% chance.

Political betting markets are a notable source of data because they operate on monetary bets, not solicited opinions given to pollsters who use statistical models that have been proven wrong in the past.

The odds of Republicans winning Congress back are pegged at 75%, according to PredictIt. Meanwhile, betting odds suggest bettors believe there’s only a 25% chance the Democrats will keep the Senate and lose the House.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have only a 47 out of 100 chance of winning both the House and the Senate. Pollsters also estimate that Democrats have a 34-in-100 chance of retaining the Senate and losing the House.

FiveThirtyEight’s prediction is based on a “model that simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often,” its website says. “This sample of 100 results gives you an idea of ​​the range of scenarios the model considers possible.”

FiveThirtyEight’s model indicates that Republicans only have a 48 in 100 chance of winning back the Senate. The Democrats have a 52 in 100 chance of keeping him.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have an 82-in-100 chance of reclaiming the House, while Democrats only have an 18-in-100 chance of retaining it.

Follow Wendell Husebo on Twitter @WendellHusebo. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.


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