Bees are a living outsider


Tottenham Hotspur are in a compelling position on Saturday, needing to secure three points against Brentford to keep pace with eternal rivals Arsenal in the race for the final Champions League spot. Spurs and Arsenal have the same record (18W-3D-11D) from 32 games, with both teams in action on Saturday.

While Tottenham are a deserved favorite over Brentford, the Bees are no pushover. One of the best stories in the Premier League this season, Brentford are just two points behind Leicester for a place in the top half of the table.

Few teams have been in better form than Brentford over the past six weeks. Since March 1, the Bees have won five of six games with a +9 goal differential and an expected +6.26 goal differential. The Bees have been terrific defensively, allowing just five goals and 5.92 xG in that span.

Pontus Jansson heads a ball for Brentford.
Visionhaus/Getty Images

This defense will be tested against Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Spurs, but there are signs that Brentford are able to control this Tottenham attack. While Spurs have been tough over the past few months, the offense has outperformed by a considerable margin. Tottenham have scored an impressive 21 goals in their last seven matches, but their xG suggests that number should be closer to 15. What’s more, Tottenham were just shut out by Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend, a side that does many similar things in Brentford.

With wins over Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as a draw against Liverpool, Brentford have proven to be a team that is doing well this season. The Bees also played very well at home, posting a +8.12 xG differential in 16 games at Brentford Community Stadium.

Tottenham still have some regression ahead and that price seems to be inflated due to the inescapable narrative surrounding the favourites.

The bet: Brentford +320

New York Post

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