When the Bears (5-5) travel to face the NFC North-leading arch rival Packers (7-3) in Green Bay on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) in the third-to-last game of Week 12, they will be trying to revive their fading division title chances.
The Bears are coming off a bye with another QB change, with a healthy Mitchell Trubisky replacing an injured Nick Foles. The Packers are coming off a tough marathon overtime loss at the Colts last week that pushed their lead down to two games. Chicago and Green Bay play again in Week 17, so it’s critical to extend to three vs. dwindle to one.
How will the Bears respond with their season on the line, given the wild card seems out of reach? And how will the Packers rebound with Aaron Rodgeers?
Here’s everything to know about betting on Bears vs. Packers in Week 12, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Sunday Night Football.”
Bears vs. Packers odds for ‘Sunday Night Football’
- Spread: Packers by 9.5
- Over/under: 44
- Point spread odds: Bears +335, Packers -415
The Packers started as touchdown favorites, then the line quickly bumped up to 8 points. With news of Trubisky starting later in the week, there has been more juice put toward the home team. They should be pumped for big game in Lambeau Field, even with no fans.
Bears vs. Packers all-time series
The Packers lead a slim 99-95-6 in the league’s longest rivalry that dates back to 1921, also heated because of the geography and different waves of franchise successes over the years. The Packers have won six of seven to take that lead and also a ridiculous 17 of 20.
Three trends to know
— 53 percent of spread bettors like the Bears to cover the increasingly big number in a rivalry game coming off a bye.
— 52 percent of over/under bettors think the point total is too low, thinking the Bears and Packers’ offenses will find ways to score more.
— The Bears are 5-5 against the spread this season and only three of their games have gone over. The Packers are 7-3 against the spread this season and six of their games have gone over.
Three things to watch
Before he was replaced by Foles (hip), Trubisky, coming off a right shoulder injury, started the season 3-0 with some nice comeback magic for the Bears. Since he was benched for ineffectiveness, the Bears have gone 2-5 and struggled offensively. He could provide a spark with his running ability and spreading the ball around, but also making sure to get the ball to go to wide receiver Allen Robinson.
Aaron Jones vs. the Bears
In five career games against the Bears, the Packers’ running back has been contained to 3.46 yards per carry and has been a non-factor in the passing game. He also has not seen more than 14 touches in a game against them. Green Bay needs to get him going and feature him wisely beyond the red zone to win the game.
Rodgers vs. the Bears
in 23 games against the Bears, Rodgers has averaged 242 yards and 2 TDs. He’s 18-5 against them with a 104.0 passer rating and 8.19 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s also thrown only 10 interceptions. The Bears’ mighty pass defense has a huge challenge ahead.
Stat that matters
113.7 and 4.4. That’s how many average rushing yards per game and yards per carry the Packers’ run defense gives up. They have been gashed, however, at times, and in recent games by the Vikings and Colts, both losses. They also struggle to cover backs in the passing game. That’s the only chance the Bears have is trying to get David Montgomery, returning from a concussion, going with key touches. That also will help keep Rodgers off the field.
Bears vs. Packers prediction
Trubisky and Montgomery will help the Bears look better offensively with more rushing balance which will open more things up downfield against the Packers’ secondary, away from shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. But Rodgers will counter with plenty of Jones and Davante Adams to grind out enough tough yards to keep Green Bay comfortably ahead in the end.
Packers 27, Bears 20