Australia – “The timing of the election is a complication for the RBA”


ANZ on the Reserve Bank of Australia:

  • “The timing of the election is a complication for the RBA”
  • “While the Bank will raise rates if the case is compelling, whatever the timing, (RBA Governor Philip) Lowe would probably prefer not to raise rates just before or just after an election. rate in 2019 right after the election, but cutting is much more palatable than hiking.”

The election in Australia is imminent, it must take place no later than May 21, 2022. The media reports the Prime Minister’s most recent hint of May 14.

This week, the current government announced its budget. This contained many $$$ sweet treats for voters. Some might call them kickbacks.

Anyway, back to the RBA. The first I’ve seen (reasonably) tip for a rate hike is June. Polling (Reuters) shows expectations for the first rate hike:

  • 10 out of 27 said June
  • 12 out of 27 said August
  • 5 were split between September and November

Previous posts this week:

  • RBA rate hike expectations intensify…June, July and August now tipped

It’s been a long time….


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