On October 14 at 00:30 GMT, the Australian employment report for September
Job change: K expected -120K, before -146.3K
Unemployment rate:% expected 4.8%, before 4.5%
Full-time job change: K before was -68K
Part-time job change: Previous K was -78.2 K
Participation rate:% expected 64.7%, before 65.2%
Scotia’s take on what to expect is succinct:
- The Australian labor market has been the victim of an increase in Delta cases which has led to severe lockdowns and a halt in job creation.
- Jobs in August fell by 146,000 and further deterioration is expected through September and October as closures in Sydney and Melbourne remain in place. Consensus estimates another loss of over 100,000 jobs for September
- The risk is to wipe out the increase in employment since the start of the year.
Westpac also came up with a good point, speaking of the drop in the unemployment rate in the previous month’s numbers:
- Does this drop in unemployment mean that the Australian labor market is as good as it was during the peak of the mining boom of the 2000s?
- No, in fact it’s far from it. Hours worked are a better measure of overall economic activity and were down 3.7% in August from a 1.1% drop in employment.
For the Australian dollar, the response will be somewhat influenced by the movement in the publication, with more than 20 hours left. A downside surprise will be expected with Sydney starting its reopening and Melbourne set to do so, so the economy is expected to rebound. Surprise on the upside is unlikely to spark reflections on an RBA move, the bank insists it will be 2024 before it hikes rates.
AUD is hostage to offshore developments, not national data.