Alexander Volkanovski will look to extend his UFC unbeaten streak and defend his featherweight title for the third time against “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung at UFC 273 on Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla.
Volkanovski was originally supposed to face Max Holloway for a trilogy bout in March, but Holloway pulled out through injury and the UFC provided Jung with an extra month to prepare for his second title (he lost to Jose Aldo at the UFC 163). Many consider Jung — the No. 4 featherweight contender — to be unworthy of the opportunity. And with a betting market as high as -800 (88.9%) implied in favor of the champ, a win for Jung (+550) on Saturday would be almost as upset as Julianna Pena (closed +700) against Amanda Nunes.
Can Jung become the fifth featherweight champion in UFC history? Or will the fight go as one-sided as the betting market suggests?
My projections make Jung a 16% underdog (+509 implied odds), but I wouldn’t touch his funding line below +600 (14.3% implied). I show value on Jung to win either by KO (projected +915) or inside distance (projected +620). You can find these odds as high as +1100 and +700, respectively.
I’d rather bet the fight will end within the distance (projected +111, listed +125 at WynnBet) or less than 4.5 rounds (listed +130 at MGM) at a similar price.
Jung isn’t as durable as his moniker might suggest, and Volkanovski’s decision prop is overrated based on a recent streak of decision wins (seven of his last 10 fights). If Jung doesn’t get Volkanovski out of there early, I suspect the champ will cut off his lead leg and end up sidelining him.
The game: The fight ends inside the distance (+125 at WynnBet).
New York Post