AI will totally disrupt Google Search in 1-2 years
According to the creator of Gmail, the Internet’s most popular search engine could struggle over the next two years.
During that time, artificial intelligence will eliminate the need for search engine results pages, where Google makes the most money, and even if the search giant deploys AI to catch up, it won’t. can’t do it without destroying the most precious ones. part of his business, Paul Buchheit predicted in a Twitter thread.
Google may only be a year or two away from total disruption. The AI will eliminate the search engine results page, which is where it makes the most money.
Even if they catch up on AI, they can’t fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business! https://t.co/jtq25LXdkj
— Paul Buchheit (@paultoo) December 1, 2022
“One thing few people remember is the pre-internet company that Google killed off: the Yellow Pages!” he wrote. “The Yellow Pages used to be a great business, but Google got so good that everyone stopped using the Yellow Pages.”
“AI will do the same for web search,” he added.
According to Buchheit, a browser’s URL/search bar will be replaced by an AI that automatically completes a thought or question as it is typed while providing the best answer, which may be a link to a website or a product.
The AI will use the old search engine to gather relevant information and links, which will then be summarized for the user, he continued.
“It’s like asking a professional human researcher to do the job, except the AI will instantly do what would take a human several minutes,” he wrote.
time to change
Ben Kobren, head of communications and public policy at Neeva, an AI-based search engine based in Washington, DC, argued that online search is long overdue for an overhaul.
“If you look at search over the past 20 years, with a few exceptions, it’s been relatively flat,” he told TechNewsWorld.
“We got used to the world of 10 blue links,” he explained. “You make a query, and on a good day, you receive about ten relatively useful links to websites that you need to research further to find an answer to your search or query. On a bad day, you receive two pages of advertisements trying to trick you into clicking and buying something and not answering your question until you scroll through the ads.
“In either case,” he continued, “you don’t get smooth answers that are simple, efficient, and what you’re looking for in one stop. The power of big language models and AI is to take a transformative leap in how we interact with search engines and how we expect information to be returned to us.
“We haven’t seen this kind of change in research in two decades,” he added.
How many disturbances?
Artificial intelligence is disrupting current search patterns by giving consumers an easy way to find what they’re looking for, explained Noam Dorros, chief analyst at Gartner, a research and consulting firm based in Stamford, Connecticut.
“Instead of spending time sifting through different search results for a single answer on search engine results pages, AI brings together relevant information for the consumer, summarizing it in a detailed yet succinct way,” said Dorros at TechNewsWorld.
“Consumers’ attention spans continue to shrink given the endless amount of information now accessible through various platforms, so any technological advancements to quench this thirst for knowledge in a concise way can clearly be a game-changer,” said he added.
Rowan Curran, an analyst at Forrester Research, a national market research firm, pointed to some challenges in AI-driven research.
“Big language models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT aren’t a whole new introduction to the online search market,” Curran told TechNewsWorld. “While LLMs are fantastic for certain research tasks, there are many circumstances where getting a single answer isn’t the goal of an online search. For example, when looking for local restaurants , you might want to see a list with ratings rather than just getting a straight answer on where to eat.
“Due to the cost of retraining, maintaining an LLM on all data fetched from the internet would be prohibitively expensive,” he added. “With further research and work on model distillation, this cost will likely come down, but whether it is sufficient to support live online research is an open question.”
Benefits of market dominance
While AI will certainly change search, it remains to be seen how disruptive it will be, said Greg Sterling, co-founder of Near Media, a news, commentary and analysis site.
“AI responses are already built into Neeva,” he told TechNewsWorld. “There’s also Perplexity.ai and others promoting AI as a search alternative. Bing will launch AI-generated content. But if everyone does, including Google, it might not be so disruptive. Right now, the AI results are at the top of the results, like some kind of big snippet. »
“Google is potentially vulnerable, but it would be unwise to bet against them,” Sterling added. “They have huge AI assets; they are just slow to deploy them. AI content could impact Google’s ad clicks and revenue. This is the real concern of the company.
AI Research Neeva | Image courtesy of Neeva
Google is ahead of its competitors on many levels, added Ross Rubin, principal analyst at Reticle Research, a consumer technology consultancy in New York.
Where the search happens gives Google an edge over its rivals, he explained. It is the default search application on market leaders Chrome, in the browser market, and Android, in the mobile market, and it has an agreement with Apple as the default search engine on this platform.
“Even if AI search engines create a better approach than Google to finding information or meeting consumer needs, Google would still have a dominant presence through which it could retain its leadership,” Rubin told TechNewsWorld.
Platform change time
Kobren acknowledged that it would be a huge challenge to disrupt a hugely successful company like Google in two years.
“What’s clear is that this is a platform-shifting moment,” he said. “For the first time, you’re going to see a real shift in users embracing alternatives to Google. You’re going to see real competition in the space for the first time. There’s going to be some kind of movement. How big will it be in two years? We can’t predict that.
Liz Miller, vice president and principal analyst at Constellation Research, a technology research and advisory firm in Cupertino, Calif., added that it would be difficult to find an industry, segment or company that will not be disrupted. by AI. in the next two to five years.
“The reality here is that AI is seeing an accelerated path out of the experimental lab and into truly meaningful automation and intelligence applications that deliver business and personal value,” Miller told TechNewsWorld.
“I hope AI will once again make real-time relevance and user context research a three-horse race between user needs, publisher inventory, and Google’s business model,” a- she declared. “He has that potential.”