Welcome to the online version of From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team on the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, the national political correspondent examines Donald Trump’s standing in the polls in two key Southern battlegrounds. Plus, national political reporter Ben Kamisar analyzes the growing number of voters planning to cast their ballots early.
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Why Trump is polling better in Georgia than in North Carolina
By Steve Kornacki
The latest round of state polls from The New York Times and Siena College continues what has become a trend: Donald Trump appears to be doing slightly better in Georgia than he did in North Carolina.
According to the Times/Siena polls, Trump leads Kamala Harris by 4 points among likely voters in Georgia, a state that Joe Biden won by 0.3 points in 2020. And Trump is ahead by 2 points in North Carolina, where he won by 1.3 points four years ago. (Both results are within the margin of error.) Other polls have found similar results, as reflected in current averages from several aggregators. And Democrats are now pushing to tie Trump to scandal-plagued Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson in hopes of hurting his standing in North Carolina.
These results may seem counterintuitive. Although the two key states are demographically similar, it is in Georgia that Democrats have made the most substantial gains under Trump. Between the 2016 and 2020 elections, the Peach State had a net margin of 5.4 points over the GOP. In North Carolina, the margin was 2.3 points.
This disparity seems logical enough. African-Americans make up a larger share of Georgia’s electorate, and the growing and increasingly Democratic Atlanta metro area accounts for a larger share of the statewide vote than North Carolina’s two largest metro areas (Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham). These are essential ingredients for Democratic success.
And yet, at least according to the polls, it is in Georgia, not North Carolina, that Trump appears to be doing best. So what is going on?
Of course, since we’re not talking about massive differences in polling results, statistical noise and random sampling errors could play a role. It could also be that the polls are accurate and that Trump really did make gains in Georgia recently that he didn’t match in North Carolina.
One intriguing possibility, however, involves a version of the polling errors we saw most dramatically in key northern states in the last two presidential elections. In 2016 and 2020, the polls were most off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are full of Trump’s core demographic—white voters without a four-year college degree—and, for a variety of potential reasons, the polls failed to capture the true extent of their support for Trump.
It is possible that similar demographic-specific results will play out this time around. Now consider the share of the adult population that white residents without a four-year degree represent in each of the key battleground states:
As you can see, North Carolina has the highest concentration of non-college-educated white residents outside of the three northern states, and 7 points higher than Georgia, which has the lowest concentration. According to exit polls, Trump won the non-college-educated white vote in each state by roughly the same margin in 2020: 59 points in Georgia and 57 points in North Carolina.
So, if a similar poll is repeated, it could mean that the overall level of support for Trump in the Tar Heel State is lower than in Georgia.
In fact, we could have seen this happen in 2020. In FiveThirtyEight’s final average at the time, Trump trailed by 1.8 points in North Carolina, but ended up winning the state by 1.3 points, a margin of 3.1 points. In contrast, FiveThirtyEight’s final average had Trump down by 1.2 points in Georgia, which he then lost by 0.3 points, a margin of just 0.9 points.
Of course, for all we know, polls may not be showing the same problem this time around when it comes to white voters without college degrees. In fact, they may be left with a demographic blind spot of an entirely different kind, one that only becomes apparent on election night. But as has happened twice before, it’s worth keeping in mind that if the problem persists, it could have repercussions not only in the battlegrounds of the North, but also in the Sun Belt.
Half of voters plan to vote early, with huge partisan divide
By Ben Kamisar
Half of registered voters plan to cast their ballots early this fall, according to new figures from the September NBC News poll, with Democrats leading among early voters and Republicans enjoying stronger support among those planning to vote in person on Election Day.
Fifty-one percent of voters say they will vote early, either by mail or in person, with Harris leading Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57% to 37%, among the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, or 45% of the electorate surveyed in the poll. That’s a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has among those early voters.
“Either the margin has to narrow among early voters, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be larger than that to win,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
The huge political difference between early-bird voters and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a sea change that has taken hold in the Trump years.
In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from the 2012 and 2016 cycles, majorities of respondents said they planned to vote on Election Day, not earlier.
Polls showed Democrats holding narrower leads among early voters in both election cycles (then-President Barack Obama led by 8 points in 2012 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 14 points in 2016), while the Election Day vote was nearly tied in both.
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🗞️ Today’s best stories
- 👋 Biden’s farewell to the UN: In his final address as president to the United Nations General Assembly, Biden called for solidarity in the face of escalating conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and growing global concerns about China’s influence. Read more →
- 🗣️ The final word :Nebraska Republican Gov. Jim Pillen has announced that he will not call a special legislative session to change how the state awards its electoral votes, dashing Trump’s hopes of seeing the change happen before November. Read more →
- 🚫 Objective: systematic obstruction: Harris said in an interview with Wisconsin Public Radio that she would support eliminating the Senate filibuster to restore abortion rights protections nationwide. Sen. Joe Manchin, IW.Va., said he would not support Harris after her remark. Read more →
- ⚫ Damaged Democratic Office: Police are investigating what appears to be gunshot damage overnight Saturday into Sunday at a Democratic campaign office for Harris in Tempe, Arizona. Read more →
- 🛡️ Security Improvement: The US Secret Service has adopted a “heightened posture” of protection around Trump following “recent events,” an agency official said. Read more →
- 👀 Retrospective: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suggested that Trump’s health policy could include overhauling standards for chemicals and pesticides. But current and former members of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said that position stands in stark contrast to how the agency operated under Trump. Read more →
- 🔥 Ring of Honor: Johnny Cash has become the first musician to have a statue in the U.S. Capitol, The Tennessean reports. Read more → Follow live coverage of the election campaign →
That’s all for now from the political office. If you have any comments (likes or dislikes), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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