The storm that could become Hurricane Helene is expected to intensify rapidly as it moves toward Florida’s Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast is bracing for the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall in a matter of days, as it will likely be a tropical storm – and possibly a tropical storm. Hurricane Helen — is organized in the Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center on Monday morning labeled a tropical disturbance southwest of the Cayman Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 9. Although the storm has not yet officially formed, the assignment of the label allows forecasters to issue an official forecast track as well as watches and warnings for the system.

The storm was poorly organized Monday afternoon, with its low-level center currently displaced from the mid-level gyre. The system is expected to become more vertical and organize rapidly Tuesday, when it will likely become Tropical Storm Helene.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts of western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as the storm strengthens further by midweek. People planning to travel to Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Cozumel are advised to check with their carriers and consider changing their plans.

Helene is expected to accelerate toward the eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, riding over record-high waters in the Gulf of Mexico that would act like jet fuel as it intensifies the storm.

Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Sciences, recently noted that Heat content of the oceans in the Gulf of Mexico is the highest ever recorded. Hot water is a necessary ingredient to strengthen tropical systems.

Sea surface temperatures in Helene’s path could reach 31 degrees Celsius, or 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal. These record-breaking water temperatures have become much more likely due to human-caused climate change, according to Climate Central. The North Atlantic Ocean as a whole experienced record-breaking temperatures in 2024, storing 90% of the excess heat from Tropical Storm Helene. climate change produced by greenhouse gas pollution.

In addition to record warm waters fueled by climate change, Helene is expected to pass directly through the Loop Current, an area of ​​unusually warm water that flows up from the Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico before squeezing into the Straits of Florida and moving north as the Gulf Stream.

Due to the water temperature and an otherwise favorable environment with high levels of moisture favoring storms and low levels of wind shear killing storms, there is high confidence that Helene will be the third of the four to make landfall. Hurricanes in the United States So far this year, the situation has escalated rapidly. Rapid intensification The criteria are met when a storm reaches wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

Official projections from the National Hurricane Center predict Helene will reach wind speeds of 80 mph by Thursday, upgrading the 30 mph tropical disturbance to a tropical storm. powerful Category 2 Storm with 110 mph winds at landfall. Some high-resolution computer forecast models suggest an even stronger and major Category 3 hurricane.

Residents on the west coast of Florida are encouraged not to focus on the center line of the forecast track, as Hurricane Helene will be a large, fast-moving storm with impacts extending well beyond the center, particularly on the eastern side of the storm. Communities from the Florida Keys north to Tampa could experience destructive flooding from storm surge, even if the center of Helene remains farther west.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 61 counties ahead of the the approach of the storm.

Florida’s Gulf Coast is particularly susceptible to flooding due to storm surge hurricanes due to shallow waters and the shape of the coastline.

As the storm becomes more organized and moves closer to the United States, storm watches and hurricane warnings will likely be issued for much of Florida’s coastline.