Memphis, Tulane, USF, UTSA commit to AAC amid Pac-12 interest

Some of the Pac-12’s most prominent expansion targets have rejected its interest, as Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA publicly committed to remaining in the American Athletic Conference on Monday.

The schools announced their intentions on social media, solidifying the AAC in the short term and leaving the six-team Pac-12 in flux as it searches for at least two more members to complete its rebuild.

The Pac-12 recently added Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State in an effort to create a fifth-best football conference. The school is in talks with Gonzaga to add a basketball team, which sources tell ESPN would come with full revenue sharing. ESPN also reports preliminary talks with Saint Mary’s for the Pac-12.

But some of the Pac-12’s momentum to become the best football conference outside the Power 4 leagues stalled, as Memphis appeared to be the linchpin for all the potential additions.

The schools issued statements filled with boilerplate jargon about student-athletes and academics, but the reality is that significant financial risk loomed if any of them decided to join the Pac-12. AAC Commissioner Tim Pernetti has aggressively tried to leverage private equity money to help boost his league’s cash flow.

The four schools issued a joint statement that said, in part: “While we recognize the interest our institutions have received from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to honor our commitment to one another.”

The AAC exit fee emerged as a major factor, as SMU paid $25 million to leave the AAC within 27 months. Factoring in lost revenue, it would cost each school about $27.5 million to leave the AAC, as the Pac-12 is set to begin play in 2026.

The biggest factor preventing the Pac-12 from attracting top-tier AAC programs was that it couldn’t guarantee them a fixed amount of money. The conference is working with its consulting partner, Navigate, to rebuild the league. Costs and travel expenses also played a role in the decision. Navigate has been at the forefront of outreach calls for the Pac-12, sources said.

While the Pac-12 has offered revenue projections of more than $12 million, there’s no guarantee it will achieve that, given that it doesn’t know who the final members will be. That has prevented the conference from getting a sense of the value of a deal with television partners, and that uncertainty has presented a risk for AAC schools. Memphis, Tulane and USF earn nearly $9 million in revenue from the league, between media rights, bowl contracts and NCAA units.

While the Pac-12 has missed out on some of its top targets, the Mountain West has been quick to shore up its league. ESPN reported that the Mountain West is offering outsized contracts to Air Force and UNLV to entice them to stay. The conference is offering its eight members extra money and guaranteeing that they won’t cut their media deals.

ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has committed to staying in the Mountain West. This comes in the form of a memorandum of understanding that will allow the league to work toward a television deal and rights awards.