Meteorologists continue to monitor a large area of low pressure near Central America that could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane and affect Florida later this week.
But the storm’s exact direction and strength remain uncertain as rain and thunderstorms associated with the system were disorganized Sunday morning.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty,” said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay. “There will be changes in this storm as it forms. We’re asking everyone from the West Coast (of Florida) to the northern Gulf Coast to be prepared for that. It could impact a very large area.”
The National Hurricane Center said early Sunday that the system, which is near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, has a 70 percent chance of developing in the next seven days, a 10 percent increase since Saturday. It is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression in the coming days as it moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
Once a storm develops, forecasters will have a better idea of its direction. Most current models show possible storm tracks heading toward northern Florida and the Big Bend region, while some show tracks closer to Tampa Bay.
Any storm system could impact the Tampa Bay area, regardless of its track. Rainfall risks will increase midweek, Wynn said. A storm would bring deteriorating marine conditions, possible waterspouts and tornadoes, high winds and a storm surge threat.
In preparation for a potential storm, people should prepare hurricane kits with essential supplies, develop an emergency plan for their families, determine if they live in a flood zone and pay attention to the latest weather forecasts, Wynn said.
Ahead of the storm, the weather is expected to be warm and sunny in the Tampa Bay area. Dry air will limit the chance of rain in the coming days, before precipitation increases again late this week.
Meteorologists are also monitoring another part of the map in the eastern Atlantic, where they predict a tropical wave could develop over the coming week and move westward. The Hurricane Center estimates that this system has a 40 percent chance of forming in the next seven days.
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