Newly popular Kamala Harris gains momentum, challenges Donald Trump for role of change leader
A double-digit surge in approval ratings, growing Democratic enthusiasm and an early advantage in representing “change” have propelled Vice President Kamala Harris ahead and reshaped the 2024 presidential race, according to a new national poll from NBC News.
With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll gives Harris a 5-point lead over the former president Donald Trump leads registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a sharp change from a July poll, which saw Trump lead by two points before President Joe Biden left office.
But the transformation of the presidential race goes far beyond the horse race. For starters, Harris’s popularity has jumped 16 points since July, the biggest increase for a politician in NBC News polls since the then-president took office. George W. Bush’s popularity improves after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Harris also has the edge over Trump on be perceived as competent and efficient, as well as have the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s qualities when he faced Biden.
And in a contest between a sitting vice president and a former president, with an electorate that overwhelmingly believes the United States is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the edge on the candidate who best represents change and can move the country in the right direction.
“In July, a strong wind was blowing directly toward President Biden and obscuring the path to victory. Today, the tide has turned in favor of Kamala Harris,” said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Trump still maintains a sizable advantage on the economy and inflation, though that advantage is smaller than when Biden was still in the race. Two-thirds of voters say their family income is lower than the cost of living, and voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern in the election.
Moreover, the poll shows that some of Trump’s erosion is coming from Republicans who aren’t die-hard supporters of the former president — but who could swing back toward him, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” McInturff said. “They can be upset with Trump, and then at the end they come back and vote like they’re going to vote for a Republican versus Democrat preference for Congress.”
Overall, The 2024 presidential race looks a lot like the one four years ago, both pollsters agree, with the Democratic candidate more popular than the Republican candidate, the electorate still deeply polarized and the final outcome uncertain.
“All this movement toward Harris essentially puts the race back where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” Horwitt said.
This brand new NBC News poll, conducted September 13-17, comes after two landmark months in American politics, including Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race on July 21, two party conventions, two vice presidential nominations, an assassination attempt on Trump in July and another apparent attempt two months later, and the first (and perhaps most recent) assassination attempt. (only) debate between Trump and Harris.
In the first NBC News poll since those events, Harris won the support of 49 percent of registered voters in a head-to-head test against Trump, who won 44% of the vote, while 7% chose another candidate, said they were unsure or said they would not vote.
In an expanded poll with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to choose which of the major third-party candidates will actually (appear on the ballot in their states.)
The two ways of testing the race represent a change from the July poll, when Trump led Biden by just 2 points in the head-to-head poll and 3 points in the expanded poll. The September results are the Democratic ticket’s best showing in the poll since summer 2023.
In the current head-to-head race, Harris holds the advantage among black voters (85%-7%), voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%), white college-educated voters (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).
All of these advantages are larger for Harris than Biden enjoyed when he was still in the race, except among independents, where Harris’ 8-point lead is nearly identical to Biden’s advantage in July.
(RELATED: See here for more on how the race has changed since Biden left office.)
Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without a college degree (61%-33%).
Seventy-one percent of voters say they have made up their minds, while 11% say they might change their minds, a shift from April, when 26% said they might still change their minds.
Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump leads on key issues of border and inflation
The NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different presidential issues and qualities.
Harris’ best showings were on protecting immigrants’ rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), the mental and physical health needed to be president (+20 points), the right temperament to be president (+16 points), and representing change (+9 points).
By comparison, Trump’s biggest gains were in securing borders (+21), the economy (+9) and managing the cost of living (+8).
But those advantages Trump enjoys today are dwindling from those Biden enjoyed when he was still in office. When NBC News asked voters these questions in January, Trump led the president by 35 points on securing the border and controlling immigration, and by 22 points on managing the economy.
In April, voters also gave Trump a 22-point lead over Biden on handling inflation and the cost of living.
A historic leap in Harris’ popularity
Beyond these issues and qualities, what also emerges from the poll is Harris’ growing popularity since she took over as Democratic nominee.
In July, 32% of registered voters had a positive opinion of Harris, compared to 50% who viewed her negatively (-18 net opinion) — nearly identical to Biden’s opinion.
But in this new poll, Harris is now 48% positive, 45% negative (+3).
No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of NBC News polling has seen such a surge in popularity in an election.
And the only gains that are bigger than Harris’s in successive NBC News polls are George W. Bush’s jump after 9/11 (when his positive number increased by nearly 30 points); then-President George H.W. Bush’s popularity jump after the first Gulf War (when his positive number increased by 24 points); and independent Ross Perot, who got a 23-point jump when he re-entered the 1992 presidential race after previously withdrawing.
In contrast, Trump’s net rating in the new poll is essentially unchanged from July: 40% positive, 53% negative (-13).
Warning signs for Harris
Despite Harris’ improvement, the poll contains warning signs for Democrats. For one, inflation and the cost of living remain voters’ top issues. And 66 percent of voters say their family income is falling relative to the cost of living.
Moreover, while Harris leads Trump on “change,” a separate question shows a potential vulnerability related to Biden’s presidency: 40% of voters say they are most concerned that Harris will continue the same approach as Biden.
In contrast, 39% are more concerned that Trump will continue the same approach he took during his first term; 18% say neither concern exists.
At the same time, 65% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who believe it is headed in the right direction. While the percentage of those on the wrong track is lower than during most of the Biden-Harris administration, this negative view closely mirrors how voters saw things when they were deciding which party to switch White House seats in 2016 and 2020.
And while the share of Democrats expressing high interest in the election — registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — has increased since July, young voters remain at a low level of interest compared with recent presidential elections.
Other survey results
In the recent Harris-Trump debate, 29% of respondents said the September 10 clash made them more likely to support Harris, compared to 12% who said it made them more likely to support Trump; 57% said it made no difference.
In the battle for control of Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 46% who want Republicans in charge. (That’s essentially unchanged from July, when the percentage was 47% for Democrats and 46% for Republicans.)
And when it comes to Project 2025 — the conservative political project linked to former Trump administration officials that Democrats have run in their campaign — a whopping 57 percent of voters have a negative view of it, compared to just 4 percent who view it positively.
The NBC News national poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 among 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom were contacted by cell phone — and its overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
