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Is a storm coming to Florida? Models are uncertain due to the formation of a depression

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of ​​interest in the Caribbean that could impact Florida. Additionally, the NHC is monitoring an additional disturbance in the Atlantic, the remnants of Gordon, and a tropical wave that is expected to move in from the coast of Africa. Area of ​​Interest in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico According to the NHC, a broad area of ​​low pressure is expected to form early next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the system slowly begins to move north or northwest after that, officials say gradual development is possible. The NHC says a tropical depression is expected to form, possibly by the end of the week. While most major models agree that a low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico, there is some disagreement on where the system will go after that. Although the models are becoming more consistent with each other, the lack of formation so far makes it difficult to know where the system will go or how intense it might be. When or if the system forms, more data will become available and the models will become more robust. For now, they should be loosely interpreted as trends to keep on your radar. The WESH 2 Early Warning Weather Team is closely monitoring the area of ​​interest and will bring you the latest updates. The chance of this system forming remains “fair,” with a 60 percent chance of formation over the next week. Over the next 48 hours, the chance of formation is close to zero percent. Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic: Invest 96-L After marking this area of ​​interest on Thursday, the NHC says Invest 96-L, currently 700 miles southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Tropical Tracking: What is an Invest? However, the NHC says significant development is not likely due to the dry environment. Currently, the Invest has a 10 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours and seven days. >> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024 >> WATCH: Surviving the Season | WESH 2 Hurricane Special 2024Eastern and Central Tropical AtlanticThe NHC says a tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Sunday or Monday. The system is expected to develop into a tropical depression next week as it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, the NHC says. The chance of formation over the next seven days is 40 percent and near zero percent over the next two days. GordonWhile Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is producing winds aloft. The remnants of Gordon are located more than 1,000 miles southwest of the Azores. The NHC says no further development of Gordon is expected as it moves slowly northwestward over the central Atlantic. The chance of formation is very low, dropping to 0% for the next 48 hours and seven days. Models do not show Gordon impacting Florida. First Warning WeatherStay with WESH 2 online and live for the most accurate weather forecasts in Central Florida. Radar Severe Weather Alerts Download the WESH 2 News app for the most up-to-date severe weather alerts. The First Warning Weather Team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of ​​interest in the Caribbean that could impact Florida.

Additionally, the NHC is monitoring an additional disturbance in the Atlantic, remnants of Gordon and a tropical wave expected to move in from the coast of Africa.

Area of ​​interest in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

According to the NHC, a large area of ​​low pressure is expected to form early next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Officials expect the system to begin moving slowly north or northwest after that time.

The NHC says a tropical depression is expected to form, possibly by the end of the week.

While most major models agree on low pressure Although development of the system is ongoing in the Gulf of Mexico, there is some disagreement about where the system will go next. Although models are becoming more consistent with each other, the lack of training so far makes it difficult to know where the system will evolve or how intense it might be.

As the system forms, more data will be available and the models will be more robust. For now, they should be interpreted flexibly, as trends to keep in mind.

The WESH 2 Early Warning Weather Team is closely monitoring the area of ​​interest and will bring you the latest updates.

The chance of this system forming remains “medium”, with a 60% chance of forming over the next week. Over the next 48 hours, the chance of forming is close to zero percent.

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Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic: Invest 96-L

After tagging the area of ​​interest Thursday, the NHC says Invest 96-L, currently 700 miles southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.

In the footsteps of the tropics: What is an investment?

However, the NHC believes significant development is not likely due to the dry environment.

Currently, the investment has a 10% chance of forming within the next 48 hours and seven days.

>> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024

>> WATCH: Surviving the Season | WESH 2 Hurricane Special 2024

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic

The NHC says a tropical wave is expected to move westward from the African coast on Sunday or Monday.

The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression next week as it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said.

The chances of formation over the next seven days are 40 percent and nearly zero percent over the next two days.

Gordon

Although Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is producing winds aloft.

The Gordon remains are located more than 1,600 kilometers southwest of the Azores.

The NHC says no further development of Gordon is expected as it moves slowly northwestward over the central Atlantic.

The chances of formation are very low, dropping to 0% for the next 48 hours and seven days.

Models don’t show Gordon will have an impact on Florida.

First weather warning

Stay with WESH 2 online and live for the most accurate weather forecasts in Central Florida.

Download the WESH 2 News App to get the most recent weather alerts.

The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning’s Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda And Cam Tran.

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